701
FXUS64 KJAN 211742 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Today and Tonight: Ridging aloft will remain wedged into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley from the southwest, as high
pressure at the surface remains over the southeast United States.
This will continue to result in quiet weather across the forecast
area today into tonight. Humid conditions will exist with dew
points only mixing into the upper 60s to around 70. Highs will be
above normal as they top out in the mid 90s under mostly sunny
skies. Lows tonight will also remain above normal as they range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s. /19/

Sunday through Friday: We will be monitoring the tropics, more
specifically the northwest Caribbean to Gulf of Mexico region,
for potential tropical development during the longer ranges of the
forecast. Until a distinct system forms, there will be a
considerable amount of uncertainty and ensemble spread in the
global models. Confidence is growing however with the synoptic
features that could help steer a "potential" system into at least
southern portions of the Gulf of Mexico late in the week.

Otherwise, the upper level ridge will remain the primary weather
influence as we finish up the weekend and begin the new week, and
this will keep warm and dry conditions with above normal
temperatures over the forecast area. As we go through mid to late
week, considerable troughing over the western and central CONUS
will impinge on the ridge, and the increased influence from the
westerlies will bring greater rain chances and slightly cooler
temperatures. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Few to scattered daytime cumulus field has developed around the
forecast area to start the period, with VFR conditions expected to
prevail at the TAF sites through the period. Some patchy BR cannot
be ruled out near some sites around 12Z Sunday, but confidence in
any impacts was too low to mention at this time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      95  70  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     94  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   95  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       94  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     95  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/EC/NF