Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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967 FXUS64 KJAN 160551 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1251 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Rest of tonight... Lingering remnant upper low continues to linger across the Mid South region, with continued high moisture & light flow around the upper low. Sfc frontal zone is stalled across the Gulf Coast, with lingering rains across the region. Outside of a few being locally heavy, most have had some movement & not been too much concern, outside of some that have locked on remnant outflow boundary. With deep moisture in the 1.8 inch range in evening observations, some locally heavy rain rates have been ongoing, but cloud tops have warmed & should continue to weaken through 11PM. Main concerns will be low clouds & fog. There are continued HREF probs of >25-30% of fog southwest of the Jackson Metro area. With some gridded LAMP probabilities exceeding favorable probs of >20-30% for several hours after midnight, high boundary layer moisture & lingering light drizzle/rain around, some patchy dense fog is possible overnight. Added a local HWO graphic highlighting patchy dense fog in our central to southwest zones along & southwest of a line from Greenville to the Jackson Metro to the Pine Belt in southeast MS & including all of southeast AR & northeast LA. Lows will be seasonably warm in the upper 60s to low 70s (67-72F). Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Tonight and Monday...Low pressure is still over the region keeping rain and clouds over the area. The heaviest rains today have been over northeast Mississippi. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this evening as this low continues to hang out over the region. Guidance is still hinting at some fog potential across the southern portions of the area overnight and have added the fog into the forecast overnight. We may have to expand it or possibly issue a Fog Advisory if things pan out. Rain and shower chances still remain elevated on Monday as this low weakens Monday. /MJH/ Monday night through Sunday...With the lingering boundary, rain chances were extended into Tuesday generally south of I-20. Not sure how fast clouds will thin out on Tuesday, so thinking it will be a few degrees cooler than models show, but not significant enough to make any changes. The latest NAM/GFS hold on to the boundary into Wednesday afternoon/Thursday. Although the boundary will likely be along the coast a few showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out along the hwy 84 corridor. Not confident, so will leave the 10 percent in the forecast, basically going with guidance pops and temps through the forecast period. The upper wave of what will be left of Francine by Tuesday should be much weaker and headed south out of the area. The stalled front will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. Upper level support didn`t look great, but convergence along the boundary and some general heating may support some thunderstorms in the afternoon. High pressure was expected to squeeze in between disturbances around Thursday and help to push everything out. The end of the week going into the weekend looks dry. Although winds around the nearby circulations on all levels were north/northeast, the airmass building in from Mexico should bring some hot and dry air into the region. Guidance has above normal high temperatures, where the GFS 850mb model temps stay around 16-18 degree. /07/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Poor aviation weather with considerable IFR/LIFR categories due to to low stratus/fog/rain will impact the forecast area for much of the period. Primary concerns for fog will be over southwest portion of the area through early morning, with primary rain concerns over northern/eastern portions of area through the forecast. THe greatest chance for improving to VFR will be from late Mon morning through Mon aftn. Another round of stratus/fog is likely late Mon night in this persistent pattern. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 84 66 87 / 20 20 0 0 Meridian 65 84 64 87 / 20 20 0 0 Vicksburg 68 84 66 86 / 10 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 69 86 68 89 / 20 30 0 10 Natchez 68 84 67 87 / 10 20 0 0 Greenville 66 84 64 85 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 66 86 64 87 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/MJH/07/EC