173
FXUS64 KJAN 150718 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
218 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Today and tomorrow...

For the remainder of today, showers will continue to generate along
a remnant low near the northern MS/AL border. Cloud cover will
continue to persist over the region this afternoon as moisture
increases along the closed low. A lack of deep instability also
looks persist across the northeast, where the potential for
precipitation is the greatest, resulting a struggle for any deep
updrafts. A storm or two could be possible in the late afternoon,
but rainfall is expected to remain mostly showers. Temperatures
continue to be on track, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
By this evening into the overnight, showers will continue to be
likely in the northeast as the low continues to produce decent
moisture along its circulation. Overnight, lingering moisture is
expected to advect into the southern portions of the CWA, creating
the potential for low cigs and patchy fog potential. This is
expected to last until daybreak, however ceilings will struggle to
recuperate.

By tomorrow, a similar pattern is expected to unfold across the
region with the remnant low circulating in the northeast, generating
showers and some storms across the CWA. Cloud cover looks to be
increased across the entire region tomorrow, allowing for highs to
be slightly lower than today. Temperatures are expected to range in
the upper 70s to low 80s north of I-20 and low 80s to the south.
Rain chances will also be extended farther south with a 60-85%
chance in the N/NE and 15-50% chance in the S/SW half of the CWA.
The potential for thunderstorms looks to be a bit higher than today
as deeper instability is generated, but showers are still expected
to dominate. /AJ/

Sunday night through Saturday. No real changes to the
extended forecast. In the mid-term looking for the remnants of
Francine and a stalled/slow moving bounding to drive showers and
thunderstorms for the next couple days. Guidance pops and temps were
good.

The remnants of Francine will continue to plague the region into
early next week. The center of the system will slowly sink south and
wobble from west to east before getting out of the area. The
stalled/slow moving boundary and moist atmosphere will continue to
support efficient rains. Guidance also shows an increase in lapse
rates Monday and an increased winds aloft, so kept thunder chances
for the afternoon. Moisture and clouds seem to hang around at least
into Wednesday with the boundary near the coast, could see some
small rain chances hanging on for the far southern zones Monday into
early Tuesday. Did not add much fog, but with the grounds moist and
stagnant conditions expected, patchy fog is likely for the next few
days. Warm conditions quickly return by late week with slightly
above normal temperatures near 90/70 returning to the area. Current
forecast was good./7/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Initial conditions range from VFR to IFR with patches of low
stratus and fog in addition to some SHRA. Coverage of SHRA will
increase through 18Z, as will the areas affected by low stratus
and reduced visibility with rain. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  80  67  83 /  40  70  20  20
Meridian      66  80  65  84 /  60  70  20  20
Vicksburg     68  81  66  83 /  20  50  10  10
Hattiesburg   70  82  68  86 /  40  70  20  30
Natchez       68  82  67  83 /  10  50  10  20
Greenville    68  79  64  83 /  40  50  10  10
Greenwood     68  80  65  86 /  60  50  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/07/NF