Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
061 FXUS64 KJAN 151035 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 535 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Today and tonight... The primary concern in the short term will be the potential for heat stress with temperatures in the upper 90s expected, with some 100s possible. Heat indices around 105 are possible and will carry a limited heat risk areawide for Saturday into Sunday. Upper ridging should keep conditions fairly quiet, however, a disturbance beneath this ridge, along with increased moisture advection around the high, will support isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening, especially east of I-55 where moisture is greatest. Have added some low PoPs in this area to capture this. Weak flow will limit organization and longevity, thus storms will be pulsy in nature. Showers and storms should taper off late evening with waning daytime heating, leading to an otherwise quiet night./SAS/ Sunday through Wednesday: The ridge bringing unseasonable warmth to our region will begin to shift eastward through early next week, but not before one more day of hot conditions. Particularly for areas north of I-20 where rain and clouds are less likely on Sunday, temperatures may approach the triple digits. Fortunately, dewpoints will be relatively lower in these areas, so heat indices are only expected to be a few degrees higher than the temperature. Still, there will be increased heat stress especially given how early in the season it is for this warmth, so we`ll continue to highlight heat stress concerns in our hazard graphics. Meanwhile, S/SE low level flow west of the aforementioned ridge will draw tropical moisture northward into the area through the day Sunday, persisting through the first half of next week. At the same time, increasing upper divergence associated with a shortwave trough over Texas will support increasing potential for rain showers and some thunderstorms, beginning over the southern half of the area Sunday and spreading northward into Monday and Tuesday. Within this regime, PWs are expected to surpass 2 in. across most of the area and may approach 2.5 in. across south MS and south LA, promoting potential for a few corridors of higher rainfall amounts. For the time being there remains some spread within the guidance as to where the heaviest rain is most likely to occur and whether it will remain south of our area or extend farther northward. This is a period we will keep a close eye on for localized flooding potential and, depending on how things evolve, may eventually need to advertise flooding threats. It`s also worth noting, NHC is monitoring for potential tropical development over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week. However, if this system develops, it would move westward and away from our area. Thursday and Friday: By Wednesday, the ridge will begin to build back into our area, with the tropical moisture plume shifting westward. Rain chances will trend back downward, with mainly dry conditions expected for the end of the work week. However, there will be a corresponding increase in temperatures with highs returning to the mid to upper 90s again by next weekend. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions will continue to prevail. Some clouds will begin to build into southeastern portions of the area later this afternoon and evening. A few popup showers and storms are possible across southeastern portions, but should remain isolated. Winds will generally be from the southeast around 3 to 5 mph./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 20 20 Meridian 98 73 97 73 / 20 20 30 30 Vicksburg 96 75 96 74 / 10 20 10 20 Hattiesburg 99 73 93 74 / 20 20 70 40 Natchez 95 72 94 72 / 20 20 30 20 Greenville 98 77 98 75 / 10 20 10 10 Greenwood 97 75 99 75 / 20 20 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SAS20/DL/SAS20