Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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796 FXUS64 KJAN 131736 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 No changes have been made to the forecast this morning. Current GOES- 16 visible satellite imagery show a few high cirrus clouds over the area, but clouds will dissipate later this afternoon. Surface high pressure ridging and dry northerly flow will continue to prevail across the ArkLaMs region today. The combination of clear skies and daytime heating will help afternoon highs peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across our CWA. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Today and tonight...Surface high pressure ridging and dry northerly flow will continue to prevail across the ArkLaMs today and tonight. H500 heights will continue to increase across the region, with hotter temperatures this afternoon. Highs today will mostly be in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s./15/ Friday through late next week... Dry conditions will persist through much of the weekend under the influence of high pressure. Given this dry air in place, deep boundary layer mixing will likely lead to very warm temperatures, mid to upper 90s. By Saturday, high pressure over Texas moves overhead and 850/925 temps around 20/26 should yield widespread surface temperatures in the upper 90s, with some 100s possible as well. Conditions are being monitored and a heat advisory may eventually be needed. However, I hesitate to say this for Saturday as dry dewpoints will tend to mitigate heat threat a bit, despite the higher temperatures. This may change Sunday however as moisture begins to recover resulting in less mixing. Despite the slightly cooler temps Sunday (cooler is relative mid 90s are still likely), heat indices could be higher. By Sunday, high pressure begins to shift east and will start to wrap moisture back in, setting us up for a wetter week ahead. Given this increased moisture, upper 90s near 100 temps will be confined to northern areas where drier air is in place and better mixing is likely. Further south across the Pine Belt, scattered rain and storms will be possible in the presence of better moisture as a wave pushes across. Things seem to have trended later compared to 24 hours ago, and rain and storm chances may be later than initially anticipated, evening into the overnight hours. A tropical airmass should continue its northward push next week, as high pressure shifts over the east CONUS. Given this steady stream of moisture, rain and storm chances will stick around. With PWAT potentially in excess of 2 inches, heavy rain rates will be possible so flash flooding could be possible if trends hold. Additionally, with the upper steering flow around the high, will have to monitor a disturbance in the western Gulf that could see some development over the next 7 days. The likeliest threat this would pose to our area would be a risk for flash flooding across our southern counties in the vicinity of the HWY 84 and HWY 98 corridor. Confidence is low, however, so will give more details when available./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Quiet weather conditions will occur through the TAF period with VFR ceilings prevailing. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 94 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 66 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 66 94 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 69 97 73 100 / 0 10 0 10 Natchez 66 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 68 96 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 66 95 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/SAS20/CR