Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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114 FXUS64 KJAN 130552 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1252 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Mostly clear skies per satellite imagery will continue through the night. Another quiet weather night is expected and no changes to the current forecast were needed. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Tonight and Thursday: Surface ridging will continue to influence our weather, keeping quiet and dry conditions around for tonight and Thursday. Mostly clear skies with overnight low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected tonight. The surface ridge is expected to begin amplifying over the region Thursday, resulting in the start of a warming trend for afternoon temperatures over the coming days. High temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s. /SW/ Thursday Night through next Tuesday...High pressure and ridging aloft will build into the region from the west, and will remain in control of our weather into the weekend. As a result, quiet conditions will prevail across the forecast area through the remainder of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. By Sunday, and continuing through Tuesday, high pressure will reside east of the forecast area. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will be on the increase across the forecast area during this time as moisture begins increasing. Rain chances Monday into Tuesday will be further enhanced by deep gulf moisture, associated with a tropical wave over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, spreading northward into the forecast area. The better coverage of convection will be during the afternoon hours as a result of daytime heating. However, some isolated to scattered convection will remain possible each night Sunday through Tuesday as our airmass will remain warm and unstable during that time. As far as temperatures are concerned, a drier airmass will remain in place across the CWA through Saturday. However, temperatures will steadily become warmer each day, with more humid conditions expected Sunday into early next week. While lows Thursday night will generally be in the 60s, as we get into the weekend and early next week, they`ll warm into the low and middle 70s. Then for highs, after a few days of highs struggling to get out of the 80s and lower 90s, they`ll top out in the mid and upper 90s on Friday and the upper 90s to around the century mark Saturday into Sunday. These high temperatures Saturday and Sunday, factored with increasing moisture across the CWA during that time, could result in the threat for increased heat stress across at least a portion of the forecast area. This will continue to be monitored in upcoming forecasts, and a "Heat Advisory" may need to be hoisted for portions of the area this weekend. With good rain chances currently advertised over the CWA both Monday and Tuesday, highs currently look to be held in check as they range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. /19/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the period./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 67 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 93 67 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 90 66 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 93 70 97 73 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 89 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 92 67 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 91 66 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15