Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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996 FXUS64 KJAN 171742 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1002 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The forecast remains on track today with our early morning fog burning off throughout the CWA and showers expected to develop across the southern half of the forecast area today. The primary driving mechanism for the weather today has transitioned from Francine remnants to the interaction between a continental ridge and a deep retrograding low centered over the eastern parts of the Carolinas. This pattern has created easterly flow in SFC-700mb level which will dry out the northern half of the CWA, inhibiting our rain chances in those areas. Conversely, the offshore stationary boundary to our south will allow for a moderate amount of isentropic lift, coupled with high amounts of surface level moisture from previous rainfall totals, will provide enough of the necessary ingredients for light showers south of I-20 today. Nothing to get too excited about though as projected totals for today are not expected to exceed 0.10 inches. High relative humidity values and moderate cloud coverage are contributing to our smaller diurnal temperature swings, leading to cooler highs in the mid 80s F and seasonable lows in the mid 60s F. Winds are not expected to be particularly notable with generally calm easterly conditions persisting throughout today./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Today and Tonight... Overall the forecast for the short term period remains on track with no major adjustment made. HREF model guidance is starting to pick up on some early morning fog potential mainly across the Golden Triangle and southwest portions of the area. Early morning hi-res guidance continues to show a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. This combined with the presence of leftover tropical moisture will allow for afternoon/early evening scattered showers and storms generally for areas along and south of I-20. Forecast confidence is much higher today given that the latest GFS/NAM continues to hold onto rain chances through late Tuesday afternoon. The presence of cloud cover combined with scattered storms will help keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s across our CWA. Later this evening, rain chances will begin to diminish leading to quiet conditions across our forecast area with overnight lows dropping into the mid 60s. With that being said, continued saturated soil conditions along with stable overnight conditions will help heighten widespread fog development heading into the overnight period. Conditions will continued to be evaluated for any potential dense fog advisories as we get closer to early Wednesday morning. /CR/ Wednesday through Monday: With the exception of Wednesday afternoon where there will be low chances of afternoon showers in our south, dry weather is expected through Monday. Our normal lows run in the lower 60s while our normal highs run in the mid 80s. Much of the forecast period will see above normal morning lows and afternoon highs. Come Wednesday morning our CWA will still be on the back side of an upper level trough with a weak center of high pressure to our north. A stalled frontal boundary will be just to the south of our southeast most zones. The surface high will remain in place but the upper level trough will shift east through the day with shortwave ridging aloft moving over our CWA. Model consensus develops a few showers during the heat of the day and spreads the activity into our southern zones. This convection is expected to dissipate by early evening. With the shortwave ridge axis and the surface ridge across our CWA Thursday, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer and convection will be inhibited. The ridging surface and aloft will change its orientation across our region but remain dominant through Monday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Morning low clouds and vis restrictions are improving, but we`re still seeing some MVFR conditions hold for a bit longer. The afternoon will be main VFR and only issues will be with areas across the south half that could see some Iso/Sct showers. Evening will be clear and focus will shift to fog potential. Guidance seems bearish, but with solid rad cooling conditions and wet ground and moist low levels fits with good conditions for fog to develop. Due to this, will be having MVFR/IFR vis conditions between 09-14z. Conditions could get worse and be more widespread, so that`s something to watch. VFR conditions for Wed after 14z. /CME/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 64 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 68 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 70 90 69 91 / 10 10 0 0 Natchez 69 88 68 89 / 0 10 0 0 Greenville 64 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/CME/