605
FXUS64 KJAN 181730 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The weather today looks to be mild and unremarkable as
heights/pressures have risen slightly across the area, and
continue to build in from the north. Our early morning fog has
burned off today and the aforementioned ridge building in will
suppress any chance for significant cloud coverage developing
today, allowing for nonexistent rain chances across the region
today.

Heat indices looks to break 90F across central portions of the CWA,
with the majority of sites maintaining heat index in the upper 80s
F. Afternoon relative humidity values will range from 70% in the
southeast to 50% in the northeast, providing some much needed relief
from the stagger humidity we`ve had the past few days. Altogether
the expectation is a climatologically sensible forecast./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Today and Tonight: Latest surface observations showed patchy fog
across the central portions of our CWA. This fog may become dense
toward sunrise but is expected to remain patchy at best and expand
over the southern portions of the CWA. A Dense Fog Advisory is not
anticipated. Patchy fog will be possible again tonight but the
probabilities of becoming dense will be much lower.

Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a closed low spinning over the Carolinas. This
closed low will continue to lift east northeast while weakening
through tonight. This will result in northwest flow aloft continuing
across our CWA. Latest surface analysis had a weak surface ridge
nosing into our CWA from the northeast while a stalled frontal
boundary continued to meander along the Gulf coast south of our CWA.
This surface ridge will change very little through tonight and
essentially keep the Gulf closed. Previous guidance had low chances
of rain this afternoon across our southern most zones. Latest
guidance has come in drier for our CWA and keeps the measurable
precipitation south of our southern most zones. Temperatures will
top out slightly warmer this afternoon and bottom out slightly
warmer than normal Thursday morning. /22/

Thursday through next Tuesday...High pressure, both aloft and at the
surface, will reside across the forecast area through the majority
of the forecast period.  This will result in quiet weather across
the region through at least the upcoming weekend and start of next
week.  Continued humid conditions will persist with afternoon highs
and overnight lows at to just above normal for this time of year. As
we move into the middle of next week, some isolated rain chances
return to mainly northern portions of the forecast area as a trough
tries to push a frontal boundary into the region. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions will predominate through the TAF period. Brief
localized fog and low stratus cannot be ruled out early Thursday
morning, but confidence at any specific site is too low to include
in TAF at this time. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      65  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     68  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   70  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       70  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    63  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     64  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/22/19/DL