Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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677 FXUS64 KJAN 131135 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 635 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Today and tonight...Surface high pressure ridging and dry northerly flow will continue to prevail across the ArkLaMs today and tonight. H500 heights will continue to increase across the region, with hotter temperatures this afternoon. Highs today will mostly be in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s./15/ Friday through late next week... Dry conditions will persist through much of the weekend under the influence of high pressure. Given this dry air in place, deep boundary layer mixing will likely lead to very warm temperatures, mid to upper 90s. By Saturday, high pressure over Texas moves overhead and 850/925 temps around 20/26 should yield widespread surface temperatures in the upper 90s, with some 100s possible as well. Conditions are being monitored and a heat advisory may eventually be needed. However, I hesitate to say this for Saturday as dry dewpoints will tend to mitigate heat threat a bit, despite the higher temperatures. This may change Sunday however as moisture begins to recover resulting in less mixing. Despite the slightly cooler temps Sunday (cooler is relative mid 90s are still likely), heat indices could be higher. By Sunday, high pressure begins to shift east and will start to wrap moisture back in, setting us up for a wetter week ahead. Given this increased moisture, upper 90s near 100 temps will be confined to northern areas where drier air is in place and better mixing is likely. Further south across the Pine Belt, scattered rain and storms will be possible in the presence of better moisture as a wave pushes across. Things seem to have trended later compared to 24 hours ago, and rain and storm chances may be later than initially anticipated, evening into the overnight hours. A tropical airmass should continue its northward push next week, as high pressure shifts over the east CONUS. Given this steady stream of moisture, rain and storm chances will stick around. With PWAT potentially in excess of 2 inches, heavy rain rates will be possible so flash flooding could be possible if trends hold. Additionally, with the upper steering flow around the high, will have to monitor a disturbance in the western Gulf that could see some development over the next 7 days. The likeliest threat this would pose to our area would be a risk for flash flooding across our southern counties in the vicinity of the HWY 84 and HWY 98 corridor. Confidence is low, however, so will give more details when available./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions and light northerly winds will prevail through the period./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 92 66 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 90 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 94 69 97 73 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 88 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 91 68 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 90 66 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15