Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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605 FXUS64 KJAN 181730 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 902 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The weather today looks to be mild and unremarkable as heights/pressures have risen slightly across the area, and continue to build in from the north. Our early morning fog has burned off today and the aforementioned ridge building in will suppress any chance for significant cloud coverage developing today, allowing for nonexistent rain chances across the region today. Heat indices looks to break 90F across central portions of the CWA, with the majority of sites maintaining heat index in the upper 80s F. Afternoon relative humidity values will range from 70% in the southeast to 50% in the northeast, providing some much needed relief from the stagger humidity we`ve had the past few days. Altogether the expectation is a climatologically sensible forecast./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Today and Tonight: Latest surface observations showed patchy fog across the central portions of our CWA. This fog may become dense toward sunrise but is expected to remain patchy at best and expand over the southern portions of the CWA. A Dense Fog Advisory is not anticipated. Patchy fog will be possible again tonight but the probabilities of becoming dense will be much lower. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the Carolinas. This closed low will continue to lift east northeast while weakening through tonight. This will result in northwest flow aloft continuing across our CWA. Latest surface analysis had a weak surface ridge nosing into our CWA from the northeast while a stalled frontal boundary continued to meander along the Gulf coast south of our CWA. This surface ridge will change very little through tonight and essentially keep the Gulf closed. Previous guidance had low chances of rain this afternoon across our southern most zones. Latest guidance has come in drier for our CWA and keeps the measurable precipitation south of our southern most zones. Temperatures will top out slightly warmer this afternoon and bottom out slightly warmer than normal Thursday morning. /22/ Thursday through next Tuesday...High pressure, both aloft and at the surface, will reside across the forecast area through the majority of the forecast period. This will result in quiet weather across the region through at least the upcoming weekend and start of next week. Continued humid conditions will persist with afternoon highs and overnight lows at to just above normal for this time of year. As we move into the middle of next week, some isolated rain chances return to mainly northern portions of the forecast area as a trough tries to push a frontal boundary into the region. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions will predominate through the TAF period. Brief localized fog and low stratus cannot be ruled out early Thursday morning, but confidence at any specific site is too low to include in TAF at this time. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 65 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 68 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 70 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 70 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 63 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 64 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/22/19/DL