204
FXUS64 KJAN 220936
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
436 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 436 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Today and Tonight: Both high pressure aloft and at the surface
will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as we
round out the weekend. This will continue to allow for quiet
weather conditions across the forecast area today into tonight.
Dew points will again only mix into the upper 60s to around 70
this afternoon, allowing muggy conditions to persist. Highs will
remain above normal as they top out in the mid 90s under mostly
sunny skies. Lows tonight will also remain above normal as they
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. /19/

Monday through Saturday: Primary concerns in the longer range
forecast include the "potential" for heavy rainfall in our
forecast area, and the likely development of a tropical cyclone in
the Gulf of Mexico. Broadly speaking, a northern stream shortwave
trough is expected to cross the northern Rockies and then dig
southward through the Plains states early this week, with an
associated cold front pushing through our area. As this happens,
a subtropical high will strengthen near the South Atlantic coast
region, and the circulation around this high should help steer a
potential tropical "system" northward through the Gulf of Mexico
and eventually toward the central to eastern Gulf Coast.

Perhaps the biggest point of contention in the longer range
forecast is the evolution of the northern stream trough and how
much of it potentially cuts over the Southern Plains. There is a
significant cluster of global model ensemble members that support
the more cut off scenario, and this would allow the tropical
moisture and perhaps tropical system impacts to affect areas
farther west along our longitude. Meanwhile, another significant
cluster of ensemble members is more progressive with the trough
and less cut off resulting the moisture plume a potential system
track being further east. Given the rex block pattern that has a
footprint in most of the model guidance output, it stands to
reason that some energy will cut off to our west, but just how
much remains uncertain and will not message for any impacts at
this point. Just be aware that significant forecast changes are
likely in the next few days.

In any case, we will have increased rain chances and cooler
temperatures as we progress through the week in association with
the front. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Winds overnight will be calm, but will increase
through morning from the south and southwest at around 5 knots.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      94  70  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     94  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   95  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       93  70  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    94  70  91  71 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     96  71  92  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

19/EC/19