124
FXUS64 KJAN 170845
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Today and Tonight...

Overall forecast for the short term period remains on track with no
major adjustment made. HREF model guidance is starting to pick up on
some early morning fog potential mainly across the Golden Triangle
and southwest portions of the area. Early morning hi-res guidance
continue to show a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast.
This combined with the presence of leftover tropical moisture will
allow for afternoon/early evening scattered showers and storms
generally for areas along and south of I-20. Forecast confidence is
much higher today given that the latest GFS/NAM continues holds onto
rain chances through late Tuesday afternoon. The presence cloud
cover combined with scattered storms will help keep afternoon highs
in the upper 80s across our CWA. Later this evening, rain chances
will begin to diminish leading to quiet conditions across our
forecast area with overnight low dropping into the mid 60s. With
that being said, continued saturated soil conditions along with
stable overnight conditions will help heightened widespread fog
development heading into the overnight period. Conditions will
continued to be evaluated for any potential dense advisories as we
get closer to early Wednesday morning. /CR/

Wednesday through Monday: With the exception of Wednesday afternoon
where there will be low chances of afternoon showers in our south,
dry weather is expected through Monday. Our normal lows run in the
lower 60s while our normal highs run in the mid 80s. Much of the
forecast period will see above normal morning lows and afternoon
highs.

Come Wednesday morning our CWA will still be on the back side of an
upper level trough with a weak center of high pressure to our north.
A stalled frontal boundary will be just to the south of our
southeast most zones. The surface high will remain in place but the
upper level trough will shift east through the day with shortwave
ridging aloft moving over our CWA. Model consensus develops a few
showers during the heat of the day and spreads the activity into our
southern zones. This convection is expected to dissipate by early
evening. With the shortwave ridge axis and the surface ridge across
our CWA Thursday, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer
and convection will be inhibited. The ridging surface and aloft will
change its orientation across our region but remain dominant through
Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A mixture of VFR/MVFR and IFR ceilings are starting to occur across
several sites to start off the TAF period. HEZ has drop down to LIFR
ceilings due to fog and low cloud ceilings. VFR/MVFR ceilings will
continue through 07Z Tuesday with patchy fog expected to move into
Central MS from the west starting a little after 08Z Tuesday.
Conditions will continue to drop to MVFR/IFR ceilings at several TAF
sites around this timeframe. Amendments may be necessary if
conditions continue to worsen. Patchy fog will continue through 12Z
Tuesday with conditions dropping down to IFR/LIFR ceilings across
several sites. Scattered showers will be possible around this time
especially for areas along and south of I-20. Conditions should
start to improve a little after 14Z Tuesday with a mixture of
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Conditions will start to improve to VFR status by
21Z Tuesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  68  88  66 /  40   0  10   0
Meridian      86  64  89  64 /  20   0  10   0
Vicksburg     85  68  88  66 /  40   0  10   0
Hattiesburg   86  70  90  69 /  50  10  20   0
Natchez       85  69  88  68 /  40   0  10   0
Greenville    85  64  86  63 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     88  65  88  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/22/CR