Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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422 FXUS64 KJAN 170608 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Today... The remnant low centered over western TN from Francine continues to be the meteorological driver for us over the short term: Today the primary topic of discussion will be a band of rain showers developing throughout the central portions of the CWA associated with the remnant lift/flow around the remnants of Francine. This low has enabled a channel of moisture to feed in from the Gulf and that will precipitate out over the forecast region today. Chances for thunder remain low for today, but an embedded thunderstorm or two in the overall showery system can not be ruled out. Rain chances look to taper off after sunset today. Leaving us with continued saturated soil conditions which will feed our potential for overnight/early morning fog for the rest of the work week. Tonight through Friday... Overall the main concern for the period will be the potential for fog development in the early morning hours each morning for the rest of the work week. This potential has been heightened due to recent rains, coupled with stable overnight conditions. Fog potential tonight is a bit challenging as we should see things shift more southward and will have to deal with some mid clouds that will limit radiational cooling. However, conditions Wednesday morning look to be more ideal across more of the area to support radiational fog. We will evaluate conditions over the next forecast cycle or two and refine this potential and overall messaging of fog/dense fog. Temperatures are forecast to be in a relatively narrow range with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Expect muggy and mild afternoons, with muggy and cooler nights. Saturday through Sunday The overall synoptic pattern will begin to shift and allow a moderate amount of drying within the low to mid levels, as dry air comes in from the Appalachians. This dry air will suppress any continued fog sufficiently to result in low risks for widespread dense fog through the remainder of the period. Dew- point depressions will be quite low though, so expect no relief from muggy nights. However, with lows bottoming out in the low 60s, early morning and overnight hours should be markedly more bearable than the muggy summer nights we`ve had the preceding months. /OAJ/86/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A mixture of VFR/MVFR and IFR ceilings are starting to occur across several sites to start off the TAF period. HEZ has drop down to LIFR ceilings due to fog and low cloud ceilings. VFR/MVFR ceilings will continue through 07Z Tuesday with patchy fog expected to move into Central MS from the west starting a little after 08Z Tuesday. Conditions will continue to drop to MVFR/IFR ceilings at several TAF sites around this timeframe. Amendments may be necessary if conditions continue to worsen. Patchy fog will continue through 12Z Tuesday with conditions dropping down to IFR/LIFR ceilings across several sites. Scattered showers will be possible around this time especially for areas along and south of I-20. Conditions should start to improve a little after 14Z Tuesday with a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings. Conditions will start to improve to VFR status by 21Z Tuesday. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 67 88 66 / 40 0 0 0 Meridian 86 64 89 64 / 30 0 0 0 Vicksburg 85 67 88 67 / 30 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 86 69 90 68 / 50 0 10 0 Natchez 85 68 87 68 / 50 0 10 0 Greenville 85 64 87 63 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 88 64 88 63 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/LP/CR