794
FXUS64 KJAN 231736 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Overall today, ridging throughout the forecast area will be the
primary meteorological driver for today, that is to say there won`t
be much excitement. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above
normal, with heat indices in the mid to high 90s F this afternoon.
Looks like late tonight and early tomorrow morning our precipitation
chances will begin to pick up with the upstream front dropping down
out of the northwest.

These precipitation chances will remain elevated (20-35%) throughout
the rest of the week due to return flow coming in around the
tropical system expected to make landfall around Panama City FL
later this week.

That all being said, it should be reiterated that for the short term
weather will be calm, quiet, and a bit warm./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Today through tonight: While much attention is given to the
tropical cyclone threat in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, surface
high pressure and ridging aloft will continue to dictate our
weather during the near term, bringing little in the way of
weather impacts and temperatures several degrees above normal. A
weak cold front will approach northwest portions of the area by
later tonight, and the increased moisture convergence could
support increased rain chances over far northwest portions of the
area by daybreak. /EC/

Tuesday through Saturday: A wetter extended period is expected as
a frontal boundary makes it way towards the area and a potential
tropical system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards FL.
Expect below-average temps (high in the upper 70s & lower
80s/lows in the 60s) throughout the extended period.

An upper-level trough is expected to move in from the northwest,
pushing a frontal boundary towards the ArkLaMiss region on
Tuesday, and rain chances (15-60%) will gradually increase as the
week progresses. This trough will help form a rex block over the
central CONUS with energy likely forming a slow-moving closed low
over the ArkLaTex/ Ozark region.

Concerning tropical development: Model ensembles have come in
agreement with the development of a tropical system that is
expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC has a 70%
development chance over the next 48 hrs and a 90% chance over the
next 7 days. A lot of uncertainty remains with track and timing of
the tropical system, however; confidence is higher that the
tropical system is expected to move northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Interaction between the closed off low and
tropical system may bring an abundance of moisture transport and
some concern for heavy rainfall. As a result, greatest QPF
amounts and perhaps some heavy rainfall will be possible in
eastern and northern MS. This event is several days away and
changes to the forecast are expected; check back for updates as
the days progress. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Overall VFR conditions prevail throughout the period with ridging
firmly in place over the region, bringing light south-
southwesterly winds./OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  91  68  85 /   0  40  60  60
Meridian      70  92  68  86 /   0  10  50  70
Vicksburg     71  89  67  83 /   0  30  40  50
Hattiesburg   71  93  70  89 /   0  10  20  70
Natchez       70  90  68  85 /   0  30  40  50
Greenville    71  86  65  80 /  20  40  30  40
Greenwood     72  89  65  82 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/EC/OAJ