478
FXUS64 KJAN 261957
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
257 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Weather conditions will remain quiet heading as global guidance
continues to wrap drier air across our forecast area while drifting
south into northern Mississippi later tonight. While this low
continues to circulate over northern Mississippi, it will help bring
in some low end rain chances (around 20%) associated with Helene
south and into our northern zones. Cloud cover should begin to
gradually increase from the north heading into the overnight period
as the aforementioned closed low remains over the Mid-South. Expect
overnight lows to drop into the low 60s across the area. Heading
into Friday, the tropical moisture associated with Helene combined
with the closed low over the Mid-South will introduce mid-high rain
chances (between 25-70%) mainly for areas along and north of I-20 by
Friday afternoon. With the closed low beginning to tighten across
the southeast CONUS along with a 5 to 7 mb pressure gradient, areas
into our northern zones could see sustained winds of 20-25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. For this reason, we went ahead and introduced a
"Limited" threat for gradient winds for these areas. This is
supported decent HREF probabilities in excess of 50-70% of greater
than 35 mph.

Friday Night through Thursday...

The gradient wind threat will begin to diminish by Friday night as
the remnants of Hurricane Helene starts to slowly make its way east
across the Tennessee Valley. Heading into the weekend, the
aforementioned low along the leftover remnants of Helene, will start
to slowly track northeast towards the Northeast Atlantic. With the
low migrating towards the northeast, rain chances will begin to
gradually decrease across the north before coming to an end on
Sunday. Heading into Monday, an upper level ridge will begin to form
over the southwest. This will help bring quiet weather conditions
along with seasonal temperatures across the CWA through the mid-
week. Beyond the extended period, future global guidance is starting
to hint at a frontal boundary moving towards the southeast, bringing
drier/cooler air into the air. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR flight categories are expected areawide this aftn with gusty
north to northeast winds around 25mph at times. The gusty winds
will continue through the aftn before subsiding into early
evening, generally after 27/01-03Z Friday. VFR flight categories
are expected but some increased IFR ceilings are prevail tonight
at most TAF sites but MVFR ceilings & light rain is psbl at GTR &
low probs at MEI, after 27/09-15Z. Expect westerly winds to pick
back up, especially at GTR & MEI, after 27/14-16Z Friday. Winds
could gusts around 25mph again Friday aftn. Light rain from outer
bands of Helene could bring some gusty conditions at times into
Friday aftn. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  81  64  84 /   0  20  20   0
Meridian      60  80  62  83 /   0  20  10   0
Vicksburg     60  83  64  85 /   0  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   62  85  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       59  83  64  85 /   0  10   0   0
Greenville    61  77  62  81 /  10  60  40  10
Greenwood     60  75  62  79 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/CR/DC