073
FXUS64 KJAN 221938
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
238 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Tonight through Monday night: Continued warmer than normal through
the period as ridging surface and aloft remains dominant but, rain
chances return to the northwest Monday evening. Mid afternoon
surface analysis had a 1015mb high centered over our CWA with a cold
front across the central Plains. Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP
analysis showed the circulation around a 592dam high centered over
Mexico and southern Texas. Also noted on satellite imagery was a
southern stream shortwave over the central Plains. The surface high
will flatten and become a ridge along the Gulf coast by Monday
evening while the mid level high flattens as well along the Gulf
coast. This will allow the southern stream shortwave trough to shift
east and help push the cold front closer to our western zones. Dry
weather is expected to continue through Monday but by Monday evening
the cold front will bring low chances of light rain across our
northwest most zones./22/

Tuesday through Saturday: Wl finally see a pattern change as by
Tuesday morning a closed low is expected to have developed over the
northern Plains. This closed low will drop to near the mid
Mississippi valley by Tuesday evening, deepening the mean upper
level trough over the central CONUS and helping to nudge the cold
front farther into our CWA. The the upper level flow becomes
parallel to the surface cold front, it is expected to stall across
our CWA. This will result in an expansion of rainfall to the
southeast over our CWA Tuesday that will continue into Wednesday.
The closed low will continue drifting south through Arkansas
Wednesday as a tropical cyclone likely develops in the southern
Gulf. Although there remain differences in the models, consensus has
the closed low meandering just west of our CWA and helping to steer
the tropical cyclone east of our CWA. The track and intensity of the
tropical cyclone will affect our forecast but with model consensus
at this time suggesting landfall east of Mississippi perhaps
Thursday heavy rain will be possible over east Mississippi. Current
storm totals Wednesday through Friday are two to three inches over
our eastern counties. Eventhough the potential tropical system may
pull away from our CWA Friday, models don`t lift the closed low to
our west out until Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be warmer
than normal through Tuesday night but cooler than normal Wednesday
with the stalled front across our CWA and the upper level trough
overhead. The cooler than normal temperatures will continue through
the end of the week provided our CWA remains on the west side of any
tropical system. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  93  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
Meridian      70  93  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     70  93  71  90 /   0   0  10  20
Hattiesburg   71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       70  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
Greenville    70  91  71  87 /   0   0  20  30
Greenwood     71  93  71  89 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/22/