965
FXUS64 KJAN 161800
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Rest of today...

GOES East water vapor/synoptic analysis indicate mid-level ridge
centered over the Carolinas to Appalachians, with southerly return
flow on the western periphery across the area. There is good
coverage of deep moisture analyzed, with GOES East total PWs
closer to 1.75 to 2 inches, expected to advect northward. Morning
12Z upper air analysis indicate a shortwave across the northern
Gulf Coast expected to move northwestward through the aftn hours.
Convective initiation has already occurred in the Pine Belt & will
propagate northwestward through the day. Convective rates will be
quick due to some light backbuilding flow, but limited support in
HREF prob match mean probs > 3 inches lower confidence of flash
flooding potential in the Pine Belt. Aftn heat & humidity remains
on tap, with highs expected in the mid-upper 90s north of I-20 &
more seasonable in the low 90s southeast of the Natchez Trace
corridor. "Limited" heat graphic remains on track. Main adjustments
were to bump up to slight chances of rain northwest of the
Natchez Trace due to propagation in convective allowing models
(CAMs). Otherwise, forecast is generally on track. A couple strong
storms can`t be ruled out, especially any that orient orthogonal
to the southeasterly low-level bulk shear, but limited vertical
totals/lapse rates lower confidence & microburst potential remain
on the lower side. Updates are already out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today and tonight...

Hot temperatures will persist today with heat indices around 105
still possible. However, temperatures should be somewhat capped
due to increasing moisture advection into the area. Still, a
limited graphic for heat stress is being messaged for today as
well. Given this moisture, along with a wave pushing northward,
scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon,
especially for areas south of I-20. Showers and storms should
gradually level off in coverage tonight, but remain persistent
across southern areas. This leads us into a potentially very wet
Monday as tropical moisture continues to stream into our
area./SAS/

Monday and Tuesday: Rain chances will increase for the beginning
of the work week as deep layer southerly flow draws tropical
moisture northward across the area. For the time being, Monday
looks to be the best day for rain chances with tropical showers
and embedded storms spreading northward through much of the day.
Rain coverage for Tuesday is less certain, as there are increasing
signals that showers may be anchored closer to the Gulf Coast,
but scattered showers will still be possible within the tropical
airmass over our area. Even drier guidance solutions mostly keep a
good deal of cloud cover around into Tuesday. While PWs
approaching 2 in. suggest potential for locally heavy downpours,
model guidance has trended decided lower with storm total rain
amounts for our area, keeping potential for flooding more to our
south and west. The upside to the increasing clouds and rain is
we`ll get a brief break from the above normal heat, with highs
remaining in the 80s to around 90 for many areas both Monday and
Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday: By Wednesday, the Southeast ridge
will begin to build back into our area, with the tropical moisture
plume shifting westward. Rain chances will trend back downward,
with mostly dry conditions over the latter half of the work week.
However, there will be a corresponding increase in temperatures
with highs returning to the mid to upper 90s again by Friday and
Saturday. Gulf moisture will gradually creep back northward into
south MS and south LA by next weekend with mainly diurnal rain
chances returning across southern zones.

NHC continues to monitor potential for tropical development over
the southwestern Gulf next week, but this activity is expected to
track mainly westward and away from our region. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

With broad and continous moisture advection continuing into the
CWA from the Gulf, being funneled by a stagnant surface high, we
can expect to see generally southerly flow and widespread cumulus
development throughout the area. A mid level inversion will
continue to erode throughout the period and has eroded completely
near the coast, allowing for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A trend of this general instability and moisture
advection making its way inland will allow for broader showers and
thunderstorms for central and southern portions of the CWA. VFR
conditions are expected to persist, other than brief drops in
visibility and ceilings in showers and thunderstorms. Wind speeds
will increase in association with the aforementioned shifting
subsidence inversion moving off. /OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  88  72  87 /  20  70  10  30
Meridian      72  90  71  89 /  30  60  10  20
Vicksburg     73  89  73  86 /  20  60  10  30
Hattiesburg   73  88  73  89 /  40  80  10  40
Natchez       72  86  71  84 /  30  80  20  40
Greenville    75  91  73  89 /  10  60  10  20
Greenwood     75  90  73  89 /  10  60  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/DL/OAJ