845
FXUS64 KJAN 160538
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Tonight through Tomorrow...

A couple of lingering isolated showers and storms will be possible
later this evening as global guidance continues to highlight a
disturbance in the southern Gulf beneath the ridge. Maintained low
PoPs (less than 20%), especially for areas east of the I-55 corridor
in order to capture this. Weak flow will limit organization and
longevity, thus some storms will be intermittent in nature. Showers
and storms will start to diminish heading into the overnight period
mostly clear skies. With skies clearing and high boundary layer
moisture, lows will only fall into the low to mid 70s across our
CWA. Hot conditions will continue heading into Sunday as the ridge
remains in place over the southeast CONUS. Areas along and north of
I-20 will see temperatures in the upper 90s, with a few spots
approaching the triple digits. Fortunately, dewpoints will be
relatively lower in these areas (67-70 degrees), with higher
dewpoints south of I-20. The limited heat stress graphic has been
maintained for Sunday in our HWO graphics. The ridge will begin
to shift eastward by Sunday afternoon allowing for S/SE low-level
flow to draw tropical moisture into the area. By Sunday
evening/night, increasing upper divergence associated with a
shortwave trough over Texas will support increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the southern half of the area.

Monday through Saturday...

Later on Monday, storm chances will start to increase northward
across our forecast area as tropical moisture advects into the area.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as PWATs are expected to surpass
2 inches across much of the area. Southern portions of the area
could see PWATs around 2.5 inches leading to several areas to see
high rainfall amounts. The disturbance down in the southern Gulf
will bring in anomalous moisture and could lead to the possibility
of some localized flash flooding potential. Forecast confidence,
including NBM probabilities less than 30%, remain low at this time
as there is still some discrepancies within the guidance as to where
the heaviest rain is most likely to occur. Recent trends in global
consensus indicate most favored area of right entrance region of the
upper jet and low-level jet focusing more on the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico towards the TX/LA coastlines. We will continue to monitor
trends and if confidence increases, may need to begin to advertise
flooding threats as we get closer to this event. Heading into
Wednesday, the ridge will begin to build back into our forecast area
as global guidance shows the tropical disturbance shifting westward
towards Texas. Rain chances will continue to diminish across our CWA
later in the work week. Temperatures will start to climb back into
the mid to upper 90s as we head into the weekend with heat indices
nearing 105 degrees and increased heat stress into next weekend.
/CR/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. High clouds
will gradually begin to build in to the south and east later this
morning into this afternoon. Some scattered showers and some
storms are possible this afternoon at southern sites, HBG, PIB and
HEZ. Coverage of showers should diminish to a few isolated
showers tonight. Winds will prevail from the southeast around 5 to
10 mph./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  74  87  72 /  30  20  70  30
Meridian      96  72  87  71 /  40  20  60  30
Vicksburg     95  74  87  73 /  20  20  70  30
Hattiesburg   93  74  87  73 /  70  40  80  40
Natchez       93  73  85  71 /  40  30  80  40
Greenville    98  75  90  73 /  10  10  60  20
Greenwood     97  75  89  73 /  10  10  60  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/DC/SAS20