864
FXUS64 KJAN 170338 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1038 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An MCV circulation, which ejected out from the Central American
Gyre over the Gulf of Mexico today, can be seen spinning over
southwestern Mississippi on satellite imagery late this evening.
With this feature and increased humidity in the region, some
spotty showers are possible overnight. Then heading into the early
morning to mid morning hours Monday, the next disturbance
emanating from the Gyre will move inland and initiate another
round of showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area.
Thunderstorm chances will still follow mainly the diurnal trend
with peak in the mid-afternoon, though high-res guidance suggests
a little farther inland should have better chances tomorrow
compared to this afternoon. High-res guidance also in fairly
decent agreement showing best rain chances will be tied mainly to
a a wave or two moving northward through the day, so do not
anticipate storms everywhere all day. Storm activity should once
again taper off around sunset or shortly after. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight through next weekend...

Through midweek (Wednesday): Wet start to the work week will remain.
With continued southerly return flow of moist BL/mean deep moisture
> 2 inches, with any storm chances winding down by early evening &
rain chances gone by midnight & reinvigorating into mid-morning
through the aftn on Monday. Synoptic pattern through mid-week will
consist of deep mean mid-level 500mb ridging >596DM over the Mid-
Atlantic states while moist southerly flow will keep rain & storm
chances around through at least Tuesday. Large Central American
Gyre (CAG) is ongoing & progged to persist across the Bay of
Campeche, where the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a high
chance of development over the next week. This looks to be a
somewhat "hybrid" system with east-southeasterly jet/fetch of the
deepest tropical moisture, >2.5 inches, moving towards the TX
coastline into midweek. With that being said, some light
backbuilding flow & tropical moisture could bring some heavy
downpours across the Pine Belt & Hwy 84 corridor through Monday,
so localized flash flooding can`t be fully ruled out. However,
confidence remains too low to introduce anything in the HWO at
this time. With increased rain chances & cloud cover, highs &
heat/humidity concerns will be more seasonable Monday, slightly
less on Tuesday & on the upswing by midweek. The best moist
convergence will occur over the southwestern half of the area
Tuesday & drier air is progged to advect in from the northeast
Wednesday, gradually shunting rain chances further southwest
through midweek.

Late week-next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Ridging at the sfc &
aloft is expected to fall slightly over the Mid-Atlantic region
while build over the OH Valley to nearing the MS River Valley. This
will help drive out most of the tropical moisture & convergence
closer to the ArkLaTex & southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with any
tropical development in near or south of the International
Border. Highs will moderate from near to slightly seasonably warm
in the upper 80s to low 90s, to seasonably warm in the mid-upper
90s. Rain chances will become confined to the Gulf Coast region
Thursday through the latter half of the week. Another tropical
wave is progged to propagate westward underneath underneath the
subtropical ridge nearing the FL Peninsula to Carolinas. NHC has
some low potential development of this system over the next week,
with global consensus indicating a range from a weak tropical
wave to an organized tropical system moving into the northeast
Gulf of Mexico late week into next weekend. Right now, there could
be enough confidence of Gulf moisture returning for an uptick in
rain & storm chances southeast of the Natchez Trace. However,
confidence remains on the low side at this point. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

After a wave of SHRA and TSRA has moved across the forecast area
just prior to this TAF period, convective debris clouds are left
scattered around the area. Patches of MVFR to IFR ceilings are
possible with the increased low-level moisture, but confidence in
prevailing MVFR was too low to mention at most sites. Additional
SHRA and TSRA are expected to develop by around 15Z Monday and
spread northward again across the forecast area. Most TAF sites
are expected to have at least brief impacts from thunder or reduced
visibility from heavier shower at some point between 16Z to 22Z.
/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  90  73  86 /  20  70  30  30
Meridian      71  91  70  88 /  20  70  30  10
Vicksburg     73  90  72  85 /  40  70  40  30
Hattiesburg   72  90  73  89 /  30  80  40  40
Natchez       72  88  71  81 /  20  80  30  50
Greenville    75  91  74  89 /  20  60  20  20
Greenwood     74  91  73  89 /  20  60  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/DC