444
FXUS64 KJAN 291121
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
621 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today and Tonight:

Dangerous heat conditions will continue to be the primary hazard in
the short term period as early morning global guidance continues to
show upper ridging building over the southeast CONUS. Southwesterly
low level flow will continue across the forecast area today. This
will allow for dewpoints to hold in the upper 70s across our CWA,
with a few spots across the Delta seeing dewpoints in the 80s. This
combination will yield heat indices well into the 105-115 F deg
range areawide. For this reason, an excessive heat warning remains
in effect from 10 am this morning to 8 pm Sunday evening, including
the Delta, southeast Arkansas, and northeast Louisiana. Elsewhere, a
heat advisory remains in effect mainly for areas along and east of
the I-55 corridor. Later in the afternoon, it is possible that some
of the counties currently under heat advisory could see slightly
higher dewpoints. If this trend holds, it is possible that several
counties could see an upgrade to excessive heat warning. Rain
chances will be fairly low across northwest portions of our area
with the best rain chances (between 60- 70%) across the Pine Belt.
No changes were made to the heat graphic for today and we maintained
a "Significant" heat risk for areas where the excessive heat warning
remains in effect. Rain chances will begin to diminish heading into
the evening hours. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the mid to
upper 70s across the area providing very little relief heading into
the overnight period. /CR/

Sunday through Friday:

Heat is still going to be the main message for the week ahead. As
the subtropical ridge moves east over the Gulf Coast region through
the week, subsidence below the core of the ridge will limit rain
chances and support mostly above normal temperatures. This isn`t to
say rain is impossible, but just that rain chances increase more
around the periphery of the ridge.

A "cold front" moving south into the area Sunday night into Monday
will arrive in advance of the ridge`s passage, with the week`s best
areawide chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.
Temps on Monday will even be knocked down a few degrees north of
Interstate 20, but as the front washes out temps should quickly
rebound for the rest of the week. Daily rain chances will be focused
in the afternoon with peak heating and mainly in the south
and southeast with possible sea breeze activity and better moisture
availability. Flow trajectories around the high will bring drier air
generally from the east through most of the period. Guidance
looks to be trending a little drier for Thursday July 4th, though a
slight chance to chance for showers and storms cannot be ruled out
at this time. Friday into the weekend, the ridge shifting farther
east will allow for troughing to more influence the central and
southern US. Another cold front moving into the region will likely
bring another focus for rain during the weekend.

Will continue to evaluate Heat products for this Sunday, but current
forecast temp/dew point values yield similar values for current
Advisory/Warning configuration. Monday`s heat will be mainly in the
southern half of the area, and an extension of the Heat Advisory is
possible for those areas. Headlines likely to continue into the
Independence Day holiday as well if trends continue as they are. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings are occurring across central MS to
start off the TAF period. Rain chances will start to increase across
portions of southeast MS starting around 12Z Saturday. A few
southern TAF sites (HEZ and PIB) will see ceilings drop to MVFR/IFR
conditions through 13Z Saturday. SHRA and TSRA will become
widespread by 18Z Saturday with MVFR ceilings prevailing across
central MS through 00Z Sunday. Rain chances will start to
diminish by 01Z Sunday. By 02Z Sunday, ceilings will begin to
improve to VFR conditions. VFR ceilings will prevail through 08Z
Sunday. Areas along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor will see
ceilings drop to MVFR/IFR ceilings starting around 09Z Sunday.
/CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  76  93  76 /  50  20  60  20
Meridian      93  74  95  73 /  70  20  80  20
Vicksburg     95  77  95  76 /  30  10  40  20
Hattiesburg   94  76  95  77 /  70  40  80  20
Natchez       94  75  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
Greenville    97  79  96  76 /  20  20  50  20
Greenwood     96  77  96  73 /  20  20  60  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT
     Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-047-053-059-
     060.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT
     Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT
     Sunday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/NF/CR