536
FXUS64 KJAN 301942
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
242 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Tonight and tomorrow: A few showers and storms could linger past
sunset tonight, as a surface cold front pushes south across the
area. In the wake, dry air will bring some much needed relief from
the heat, albeit temporary. It`s not all good news for everybody
though, as areas south of I-20 hold onto mid to upper 70s
dewpoints. As such, a heat advisory has been continued in this
area for heat indices 105+. Showers and storms continue to be
possible tomorrow afternoon in far southern areas where moisture
remains abundant, but should be more isolated than this afternoon.
Heat makes a return mid week with upper ridging continuing to
build eastward./SAS/

Monday night through Saturday night: Come Monday evening a large
595dam ridge will be centered just west of our CWA while a >1020mb
centered over the Ohio valley ridges southwest across our CWA to a
stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf coast. A much drier airmass
with PWATs less than an inch and a half and surface dew points in
the 60s will be over the northeast third of our CWA. Tuesday looks
to be the hottest day of the forecast period as the large mid level
high becomes centered over our CWA. Most sites will top out in the
upper 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity across our
southern zones will result in heat index values between 105F and
110F again so a continuation of a Heat Advisory is likely for our
southern zones Tuesday. Any daytime convection across our southern
zones is expected to have dissipated by evening so Tuesday night dry
weather is expected.

Wednesday through Friday the mid level ridge will weaken and flatten
over our region. The surface ridge will shift south and nose across
the Gulf coast from the east. This will help return low level
moisture and result in high humidity back across our whole CWA.
Afternoon highs will continue to be above normal and combine with
high humidity for heat index values above 105F each day. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for most of our CWA each day. As the
mid level ridge breaks down there will be a greater coverage of
diurnally driven convection each day as well. Saturday upper level
troughing from the west and perhaps a weak cold front will move over
our area. This will result in our next best chance for widespread
rain. The increased cloud cover and lower heights will also serve to
hold temperatures down a few degrees. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

TAFs are mostly VFR this period. Some showers and a few storms are
evident on radar this afternoon and will continue to be isolated
to scattered this afternoon. Showers and storms should taper off
shortly after sunset, later this evening. MVFR ceilings will be
possible tomorrow morning, especially in areas that see rain
today, mostly southern sites. Winds will prevail from the north
around 5mph./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  94  70  97 /  20  10   0  20
Meridian      75  95  69  97 /  40  10   0  30
Vicksburg     77  94  70  97 /  20  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   77  97  74  97 /  20  20   0  40
Natchez       76  94  73  98 /  20  30   0  20
Greenville    77  92  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     75  93  68  97 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-
     019-025>027-034>036-040>042-047-053-059-060.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ047-048-
     053>055-059-061>065-072>074.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ060.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ028>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ015-016-023-
     025.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ024-
     026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

SAS20/22/SAS20