797
FXUS64 KJAN 021951
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
251 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today through Next Tuesday:

A broad area of high pressure will continue to dominate the South
Central States through Wednesday. Northerly flow will continue
through this afternoon allowing the dry air mass to stay in the
northern/north central portions of the CWA before quickly being
overtaken by the southern stream of moisture from the
east/southeast. This will allow PWs to jump to right around 2in by
overnight areawide with the south/southeast increasing to the 2.25-
2.5in range. While unlikely, this will allow for the possibility to
see some pop up showers or storms in the far southeast this
afternoon and early evening. Otherwise expect a nice night with
mostly clear skies and low temperatures well above climo by 5-10
degrees.

Tomorrow high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to
build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain
for the remainder of the period. We can expect the surface ridge to
continue to allow an influx of deep moisture into the area through
next week. This will result in increase humidly and chances for
showers and storms throughout each afternoon of the period. Storm
coverage will be be greatest in the southeast gradually decreasing
to the northwest. This will be due to a stalled boundary dropping
into Northern MS.

While this will be a wet period, it will also be a hot one. High
temperatures each day will remain in the mid-high 90s and heat
indices in excess of 105-110 degrees leading dangerous heat stress
condition. Thus there will be need for heat products areawide
throughout the week with much of the area under an "Excessive Heat
Warning" Wednesday and potential to continue into Thursday. Areas
not under an "Excessive Heat Warning" will likely continue to be
included in a "Heat Advisory." By Friday the rain will have provided
enough relief to cool temps slightly with only a "Heat Advisory"
likely for some areas of northwest MS and southeast AR. Due to this
potential, a "Significant" was added both Wednesday and Thursday in
the HWO graphics, while "Elevated" southeast of the Natchez Trace
both days. By this weekend the stalled boundary will bring greater
chances for areawide rainfall each day through Tuesday. This will
likely us a break from most heat stress and heat related products
from the weekend into early next week as high temps will dip into
the lower 90s to upper 80s. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period.
Expect light easterly/southeasterly wind of less than 10kts. By
12-13Z Wednesday morning low stratus will be possible at sites HBG
and PIB bringing MVFR or lower ceilings./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  96  76  94 /   0  50  10  50
Meridian      76  96  75  95 /  10  60  10  50
Vicksburg     78  97  77  95 /   0  30   0  30
Hattiesburg   78  95  77  96 /  20  80  10  50
Natchez       78  96  77  93 /   0  50   0  30
Greenville    75  99  79  96 /   0  10   0  20
Greenwood     76  98  78  95 /   0  20   0  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-054-059-060.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-048-049-052-
     054>058-061>066-072>074.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047-
     053-059-060.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ039-045-
     046-050>052-055>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

KP