868
FXUS64 KJAN 030626 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
126 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today through Next Tuesday: A broad area of high pressure will
continue to dominate the South Central States through Wednesday.
Northerly flow will continue through this afternoon allowing the
dry air mass to stay in the northern/north central portions of the
CWA before quickly being overtaken by the southern stream of
moisture from the east/southeast. This will allow PWs to jump to
right around 2in by overnight areawide with the south/southeast
increasing to the 2.25- 2.5in range. While unlikely, this will
allow for the possibility to see some pop up showers or storms in
the far southeast this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise
expect a nice night with mostly clear skies and low temperatures
well above climo by 5-10 degrees.

Tomorrow high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to
build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain
for the remainder of the period. We can expect the surface ridge to
continue to allow an influx of deep moisture into the area through
next week. This will result in increase humidly and chances for
showers and storms throughout each afternoon of the period. Storm
coverage will be be greatest in the southeast gradually decreasing
to the northwest. This will be due to a stalled boundary dropping
into Northern MS.

While this will be a wet period, it will also be a hot one. High
temperatures each day will remain in the mid-high 90s and heat
indices in excess of 105-110 degrees leading dangerous heat stress
condition. Thus there will be need for heat products areawide
throughout the week with much of the area under an "Excessive Heat
Warning" Wednesday and potential to continue into Thursday. Areas
not under an "Excessive Heat Warning" will likely continue to be
included in a "Heat Advisory." By Friday the rain will have provided
enough relief to cool temps slightly with only a "Heat Advisory"
likely for some areas of northwest MS and southeast AR. Due to this
potential, a "Significant" was added both Wednesday and Thursday in
the HWO graphics, while "Elevated" southeast of the Natchez Trace
both days. By this weekend the stalled boundary will bring greater
chances for areawide rainfall each day through Tuesday. This will
likely us a break from most heat stress and heat related products
from the weekend into early next week as high temps will dip into
the lower 90s to upper 80s. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

There is some chance for BR and low stratus to produce MVFR
conditions near KHBG and KPIB before 12Z to 15Z today, but main
impacts to the TAF sites will be possible SHRA and TSRA generally
between about 19Z today to 01Z Thursday. Gusty and erratic winds
could occur near any storms, but otherwise expect south-
southeasterly winds around 5-10 kts through the period. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  94  77  93 /  10  50  10  60
Meridian      75  95  75  94 /  10  50  10  80
Vicksburg     77  95  77  94 /   0  30  10  50
Hattiesburg   77  96  77  96 /  10  50  10  50
Natchez       77  93  76  94 /   0  30   0  40
Greenville    79  96  79  94 /   0  20  20  60
Greenwood     78  95  78  93 /   0  30  20  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-054-059-
     060.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ039-045-046-050>052-055>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

KP/KP/NF