650
FXUS64 KJAN 022333 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
633 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today through Next Tuesday: A broad area of high pressure will
continue to dominate the South Central States through Wednesday.
Northerly flow will continue through this afternoon allowing the
dry air mass to stay in the northern/north central portions of the
CWA before quickly being overtaken by the southern stream of
moisture from the east/southeast. This will allow PWs to jump to
right around 2in by overnight areawide with the south/southeast
increasing to the 2.25- 2.5in range. While unlikely, this will
allow for the possibility to see some pop up showers or storms in
the far southeast this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise
expect a nice night with mostly clear skies and low temperatures
well above climo by 5-10 degrees.

Tomorrow high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to
build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain
for the remainder of the period. We can expect the surface ridge to
continue to allow an influx of deep moisture into the area through
next week. This will result in increase humidly and chances for
showers and storms throughout each afternoon of the period. Storm
coverage will be be greatest in the southeast gradually decreasing
to the northwest. This will be due to a stalled boundary dropping
into Northern MS.

While this will be a wet period, it will also be a hot one. High
temperatures each day will remain in the mid-high 90s and heat
indices in excess of 105-110 degrees leading dangerous heat stress
condition. Thus there will be need for heat products areawide
throughout the week with much of the area under an "Excessive Heat
Warning" Wednesday and potential to continue into Thursday. Areas
not under an "Excessive Heat Warning" will likely continue to be
included in a "Heat Advisory." By Friday the rain will have provided
enough relief to cool temps slightly with only a "Heat Advisory"
likely for some areas of northwest MS and southeast AR. Due to this
potential, a "Significant" was added both Wednesday and Thursday in
the HWO graphics, while "Elevated" southeast of the Natchez Trace
both days. By this weekend the stalled boundary will bring greater
chances for areawide rainfall each day through Tuesday. This will
likely us a break from most heat stress and heat related products
from the weekend into early next week as high temps will dip into
the lower 90s to upper 80s. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail areawide along with a light wind until
after 14Z when MVFR cigs are expected across the southern TAF
sites. VFR conditions are expected areawide by 18Z and wl prevail
through the end of the TAF period. Isold to sct TSRA wl be psbl
cntrl and south 20-24Z Wed. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       97  78  96  76 /   0   0  50  10
Meridian      99  76  96  75 /  10  10  60  10
Vicksburg     97  78  97  77 /   0   0  30   0
Hattiesburg   99  78  95  77 /  20  20  80  10
Natchez       98  78  96  77 /  10   0  50   0
Greenville    97  75  99  79 /   0   0  10   0
Greenwood     97  76  98  78 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-054-059-060.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-048-049-052-
     054>058-061>066-072>074.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047-
     053-059-060.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ039-045-
     046-050>052-055>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

/KP/22