485
FXUS64 KJAN 010603 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Tonight and tomorrow: A few showers and storms could linger past
sunset tonight, as a surface cold front pushes south across the
area. In the wake, dry air will bring some much needed relief from
the heat, albeit temporary. It`s not all good news for everybody
though, as areas south of I-20 hold onto mid to upper 70s
dewpoints. As such, a heat advisory has been continued in this
area for heat indices 105+. Showers and storms continue to be
possible tomorrow afternoon in far southern areas where moisture
remains abundant, but should be more isolated than this afternoon.
Heat makes a return mid week with upper ridging continuing to
build eastward./SAS/

Monday night through Saturday night: Come Monday evening a large
595dam ridge will be centered just west of our CWA while a >1020mb
centered over the Ohio valley ridges southwest across our CWA to a
stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf coast. A much drier airmass
with PWATs less than an inch and a half and surface dew points in
the 60s will be over the northeast third of our CWA. Tuesday looks
to be the hottest day of the forecast period as the large mid level
high becomes centered over our CWA. Most sites will top out in the
upper 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity across our
southern zones will result in heat index values between 105F and
110F again so a continuation of a Heat Advisory is likely for our
southern zones Tuesday. Any daytime convection across our southern
zones is expected to have dissipated by evening so Tuesday night dry
weather is expected.

Wednesday through Friday the mid level ridge will weaken and flatten
over our region. The surface ridge will shift south and nose across
the Gulf coast from the east. This will help return low level
moisture and result in high humidity back across our whole CWA.
Afternoon highs will continue to be above normal and combine with
high humidity for heat index values above 105F each day. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for most of our CWA each day. As the
mid level ridge breaks down there will be a greater coverage of
diurnally driven convection each day as well. Saturday upper level
troughing from the west and perhaps a weak cold front will move over
our area. This will result in our next best chance for widespread
rain. The increased cloud cover and lower heights will also serve to
hold temperatures down a few degrees. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions to start the period at the TAF sites, however with
some rain that fell Sunday evening, some patchy BR is possible
before 12Z Monday. Additionally, some brief impacts from scattered
to broken MVFR ceilings are possible before 14Z as patches of low
stratus are pushed southward by a cold front. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  97  77  94 /   0  20   0  40
Meridian      69  97  74  94 /   0  30   0  40
Vicksburg     71  97  77  95 /   0  10   0  20
Hattiesburg   74  97  77  95 /   0  40  10  60
Natchez       74  98  77  94 /   0  20   0  40
Greenville    68  97  77  96 /   0   0   0  20
Greenwood     68  97  77  96 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ047-048-053>055-059-061>065-072>074.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ060.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ015-016-023-025.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ024-026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/22/NF