Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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360 FXUS62 KJAX 201902 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Isolated showers will continue to push onshore at times through the rest of this afternoon with heavier showers approaching the coast late this afternoon towards sunset off the Flagler and St Johns county coast as a weak low approaches our area from the western Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas. Easterly to east northeasterly winds will stay in the 15-25 mph range from I-95 to the beaches to more 10-15 mph farther inland with higher gusts along the coast to 25-30 mph. temperatures will stay in the mid 80s along the coast with upper 80s to around 90 degrees along and west of I-75 in NE FL and US441 in SE GA. Tonight, a weak low will move west to west northwest towards the NE FL coast south of St Augustine with rounds of numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms spreading north along the coast to I-95 and then pressing inland towards the St Johns river and to US highway 301 by dawn. Could see locally heavy rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches along the NE FL coast to the St Johns river, but most likely amounts will be around 1 to 1.5 inches over St Johns and Flagler counties, in the half inch to an inch range for most locations east of highway 301 with less amounts over inland SE GA. A few heavier showers may also bring wind gusts up to 35-40 mph, but winds will mostly be breezy at the immediate coast overnight in the 15-20 mph range gusting to 30 mph and 10-15 mph inland. These elevated onshore winds at the coast will keep lows in the upper 70s at the coast, mid 70s along I-95, lows 70s inland with some upper 60s northwest of Waycross. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Area of low pressure with disorganized convection will move west- northwest toward SE GA and NE FL during the overnight hours and then move inland around or just after sunrise Friday morning. There is no much time for the system to get organized, but there is a small chance it can be a depression before it comes ashore. Either way, impacts are the same with rough surf, potential minor beach erosion during high tide, high risk of rip currents. Expecting numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms with this feature, along with elevated winds and gusts particularly I-95 eastward where some wind gusts exceeding 30 mph are possible. Highs Friday will be a little cooler than normal due the clouds and rainfall passing through with highs in the 85 to 90 degree range. High pressure will build to the northeast behind the low pressure area Friday night through Saturday. This pattern will continue the onshore flow pattern, but the gradient will be more relaxed, so so not expecting winds to be as elevated during this time frame. Above average shower chances will continue in the onshore flow. Diurnal heating could lead to a few afternoon storms on Saturday. Lows Friday night will generally be in the lower to mid 70s, except a little warmer near the coast. Temperatures Saturday will trend above normal, with highs ranging from the lower 90s at the coast, to the mid 90s inland. The high will move further away to the east northeast Saturday night, with the flow becoming more from the south/southeast. Lows away from the coast in the mid 70s, upper 70s coast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The high will continue to drift away to the east this period, as a trough moves into the southeastern US and stalls. An increasingly moist southwest flow will become the trend this period. This pattern will produce above normal chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above normal throughout this period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Gusty easterly winds continue through 00Z with gusts ranging in the 15-25 kt range. Isolated showers continue to move onshore this afternoon occasionally forming into convergent bands. Winds become more NE tonight after sunset with more widespread MVFR CIGS. Numerous light rain showers and isolated t-storms develop for the coastal TAFs after 06z during the predawn hours as an area of low pressure moves toward the FL coast. Showers and isolated storms spread further inland after 10Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Strong high pressure will sink southward over the western Atlantic waters east of the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight with small craft advisory conditions continuing over the local waters. Weak troughing over the area waters will help to bring occasional light showers across the waters through early this evening. Tonight, a weak low currently northeast of the Bahamas will move westward as the high to the northeast shifts more eastward into the western Atlantic. The weak low will move onshore early Friday morning and then exit to the west through the day towards the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the high to the northeast and the low moving through the region will continue small craft advisory conditions through much of Friday before the pressure gradient relaxes due to the low departing and the high weakening. Seabreeze circulations will create increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms along the coast and local waters this weekend as light southeast flow prevails. A cold front will approach early next week with winds becoming more southerly and elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents in effect for northeast FL and southeast GA beaches due to strong onshore flow through Friday. High surf advisory also in effect for northeast florida beaches as surf/breakers remain 5-7 ft and range 4-6 ft along the southeast GA beaches. With the approach of the full moon later this week, water levels will start to run above normal but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the onshore flow.| && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A wave of low pressure will move west and affect the area late tonight through Friday morning with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms for much of the area. High pressure will build further away to the east northeast Friday night through Saturday. The high will drift further away to the east later in the weekend into next week, as a trough of low pressure slides into the southeastern US and stalls. This will allow a moist southwesterly to persists next week allowing scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall for tonight where locally heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible across coastal NE FL as a weak low moves from north of the Bahamas west northwest into the southern portion of the the NE FL coast near or south of St Augustine with rounds of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms moving onshore from the Atlantic waters. Urban locations within the I-95 corridor may experience minor flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 90 73 92 / 40 60 30 80 SSI 77 87 77 88 / 60 80 60 70 JAX 75 88 74 92 / 70 80 50 80 SGJ 77 87 75 90 / 80 80 60 80 GNV 73 89 72 93 / 60 80 30 90 OCF 74 91 75 95 / 50 70 30 90 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138. High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$