Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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774 FXUS62 KJAX 181925 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The region will remain between strong high pressure off the coast of New England and strengthening Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the SW Gulf. This setup has supported gusty easterly flow with gusts this afternoon ranging from 25-38 MPH. Dry airmass (PWAT 1-1.3 in.) and prevailing subsidence has limited shower development so far today. However, continuous onshore flow has gradually begun to increase low-level moisture along the Atlantic coast which could sustain some showers that move onshore later this afternoon into evening. Winds will be slow to subside overnight and will remain breezy along the coast. Overnight lows will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Breezy conditions along coastal sites will continue through midweek as high pressure remains situated towards the north- northeast of the area. Coastal sites will see gusts of up to 25-30 mph. The onshore winds will also see an increase in shower chances along the coast as moisture moves inland from the coast. Daytime temperatures will run on the cooler side of normal as the cool marine air will keep temperature values in the mid to upper 80s along coastal locations towards US-301 in NE FL, with far inland locations in the lower to mid 90s. By Thursday evening, a tropical wave currently situated to the east of the Bahamas will begin to near the FL coast. NHC has a 10% of chance of further development over the next 48 hours. An increase in rain chances will begin during the early hours on Friday and through the day as the feature treks across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 As the tropical wave feature starts to fizzle out and/or become more diffuse over the region, high pressure planted to our north and east for much of the week finally starts to broaden a bit and track further to our north and east through much of this period. This should generally result in weaker surface ridging and therefore a weaker pressure gradient compared to what will be seen for most of this week, with also a more southeasterly flow. This is expected to bring closer to a more typical summertime convective pattern for the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Therefore expecting a moderation of temperatures through this period, starting near to slightly below average on Friday and trending towards near to above average by the end of the weekend and the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Gusty easterly winds continue into this evening with sustained speeds of 15-20 kts and gusts 20-28 kts. Isolated weak showers will continue to shift onshore and pass near the TAF sites today, mainly SGJ. Winds will be slow to subside overnight at the coastal terminals and will generally remain sustained around 15 knots, while speeds at the inland terminals decrease to 5-10 knots after 06Z. MVFR stratocumulus may move across SGJ in the pre-dawn hours. Easterly winds quickly increase once again after 12Z with another round of showers moving onshore. Shower coverage will be isolated to scattered tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Strong high pressure will remain anchored off coastal New England through Thursday maintaining small craft advisory conditions across the coastal waters. Easterly winds 15-20 knots and seas building to 6 to 8 feet will continue through Thursday. Meanwhile, a trough situated to the northeast of the Bahamas will be steered westward towards the southeastern seaboard late this week, with weak low pressure possibly developing as this system traverses the Gulf Stream waters. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage late this week and through the upcoming weekend across our local waters. High pressure will weaken late this week as it sinks slowly southward towards Bermuda, with the axis of this surface ridge extending across our area during the upcoming weekend. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as prevailing winds shift to southeasterly on Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of rip currents this week with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft today building to 4-6 ft on Wednesday/Thursday. With the approach of the full moon later this week, water levels will start to run above normal but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the onshore flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 88 69 90 / 10 20 10 20 SSI 76 86 77 86 / 30 50 40 40 JAX 72 87 73 86 / 20 50 40 50 SGJ 76 87 75 86 / 20 60 70 50 GNV 72 90 72 89 / 10 40 20 40 OCF 74 90 74 91 / 20 50 30 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$