Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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488 FXUS62 KJAX 221624 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1224 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 907 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Weak high pressure ridge settles over the area today with a continued NE Flow along the Atlantic Coast, which will continue showers along the Flagler County coastal areas, but otherwise Mostly Sunny and dry elsewhere with above normal temps continuing with highs around 90F inland and mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Not as breezy today with Northeast winds at 10-15G20 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 5-10G15 mph over inland areas. Weak high pressure lingers over the area tonight and under clear skies and calm winds over inland areas, expect low temps in the mid/upper 60s and locally dense fog to develop towards morning, with the lowest visibilities expected across inland NE FL and along the I-75 corridor and dense fog advisories may be required close to sunrise Monday morning. Closer to the Atlantic Coast, some patchy fog will be possible as winds become light and variable during the overnight hours with lows in the lower 70s. && .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight) Light fog development early this morning will be patchier in nature compared to the last few mornings and favor inland regions, west of I-95. The dry weather pattern, dictated by an abnormally dry airmass, continues today under the influence of dry northerly flow and a surface weakening surface ridge of high pressure. That high will slide to the east today allowing winds to swing easterly by tonight. Showers will be focused mainly over the coastal Atlantic waters along a coastal trough but, like yesterday, a few showers may advect into portions of the Flagler county coast. Otherwise, the stable airmass will keep rain chances nil across the rest of the area. Clear, calm conditions tonight will lend the potential for patchy inland fog and locally dense fog may develop. Slight bump in temperatures today amid the drier airmass and ridging aloft. Inland areas will make a run toward 90F while onshore flow will keep the coastal areas in the mid 80s. Under clear skies tonight, lows will fall toward the upper 60s and low 70s. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The dry pattern continues during the first couple of days of the upcoming week with high pressure over the region. Light easterly- southeasterly winds through the period as the high pressure begins to shift towards the east. Early morning fog may develop during the early morning hours for far inland locations with clear skies and weak overnight winds. Temperature highs for in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, with highs in the lower 90s for inland locations. Overnight lows expected to be in the upper 60s for locations across SE GA and in the lower 70s across NE FL. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Guidance continues trending towards the development of a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico during the later half of the upcoming week, with NHC now showing 70% confidence of development during the next 7 days. The exact path of any system that may development will be contingent on an upper trough which is expected to develop and trek eastward from the central CONUS. This trough would influence whether the system takes a more northward or northeastern path, leaving the extent of any local impacts from this system still uncertain. Be sure to restock supply kits and review family evacuation plans. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 NE Flow along the NE FL coast is producing some MVFR CIGS this afternoon at SGJ, otherwise VFR conds at all other TAF sites through the evening hours. Near calm winds develop after sunset tonight and expect fog to be a bigger issue late tonight with IFR conds likely at VQQ/GNV in the 08-12Z time frame, along with MVFR vsbys at JAX/CRG more likely in the 10-12Z time frame, but not expected along the coast at SSI/SGJ. VFR conds return in the 13-14Z time frame as fog lifts/dissipates and some FEW-SCT diurnal Cumulus develops late in the TAF period, but not expecting any MVFR CIGS at this time. && .MARINE... Onshore flow continues but will ease today as high pressure slides into the waters from the north. A weak pressure pattern will continue through the middle of next week as high pressure lingers to the east northeast. During the second half of next week, an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical disturbance next week. RIP CURRENTS...Despite easing onshore flow, lingering surf around 3-5 feet will lead to a Moderate Risk of rip currents at area beaches today. Mellowing surf and lighter winds will continue to lower risk through Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Decreasing astronomical tidal influences and easing onshore flow will lower tidal levels this afternoon. Elevated tide is expected along the southeast GA coast but it is unlikely to reach Minor Flood levels. As such, the previous Coastal Flood Advisory for Camden and Glynn county has been cancelled. Minor tidal flooding remains a concern for the Atlantic beaches of northern Florida and the St Johns River basin. Trapped tides are likely to continue minor flood within the St Johns River and its tributaries into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 68 92 69 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 85 73 86 74 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 89 68 90 72 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 87 71 88 74 / 30 10 0 0 GNV 92 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 92 68 92 71 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-125- 132-137-225-325. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ124- 133-138. GA...None. AM...None. && $$