Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
828 FXUS62 KJAX 161519 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES... ...MONITORING POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS MIDWEEK... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .UPDATE... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Late morning surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure (1027 millibars) centered over New England, with a decaying frontal boundary wedging southward through the Carolinas and the southern Appalachians. Aloft...stout ridging prevails over the southeastern states, with the feature steering shortwave energy around its western periphery from the southern Plains states northeastward to the Great Lakes region. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier than average air mass remains over most of our region, except for locations near the Suwannee River, where values were around 1.8 inches, which is closer to climatology. PWAT values elsewhere were generally in the 1.3- 1.5 inch range, with higher PWATS just north of our region near the decaying frontal boundary. Our local pressure gradient is beginning to tighten as high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard, with breezy onshore winds taking shape at area beaches late this morning. Southeasterly low level flow has shaped a healthy cumulus field across our area, and temperatures at 15Z were already in the upper 80s and lower 90s across our area, with dewpoints mostly in the 70s. Breezy easterly winds will overspread inland locations as the afternoon progresses, with onshore winds increasing to the 15-20 mph range with occasional gusts up to 30 mph by late this afternoon and early this evening along the Atlantic coast. The strengthening surface ridge along the New England coast will generally advect a dry and subsident air mass onshore, with the Atlantic sea breeze progressing well inland towards the I-75 corridor by the late afternoon hours. This boundary will encounter higher PWAT values located along and west of the Suwannee River, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to erupt by late afternoon for locations along and west of I-75 in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. In advance of the approaching Atlantic sea breeze boundary, highs will soar to the mid and possibly upper 90s across the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA, where dewpoints will crash through the 60s this afternoon, keeping maximum heat index values around 100. Breezy onshore winds will keep highs in the lower 90s for locations east of U.S. Highway 301, and coastal temperatures will fall into the 80s by late afternoon as onshore winds strengthen. Showers and thunderstorms developing along the I-75 corridor during the mid to late afternoon hours will progress westward across the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers by sunset. Breezy and convergent low level easterly flow may begin to advect isolated showers developing over the Atlantic waters onshore along the northeast FL coastal counties towards sunrise on Monday. The onshore breeze will be slow to weaken along the coast overnight, keeping lows in the upper 70s to around 80 for locations east of I-95, while lows elsewhere fall to the low and mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Monday...Relatively strong high pressure center building into the Carolinas north of the region will continue to increase the Easterly flow off the Atlantic with breezy winds at 15-25G35 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20G30 mph over inland areas during the afternoon hours. Likely expecting a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. This flow pattern will push scattered showers and isolated storms into the coastal areas through the day and into the inland areas during the afternoon hours with gusty winds as the main threat from storm activity. Max temps will be close to normal values in the upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland areas. Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps elevated. Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas. Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps elevated. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Wednesday/Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin up a low pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance pushing quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula. Still way too early if this system becomes actual tropical low pressure system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line during this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to 50-80% with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy storms pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the main threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal levels with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still reaching into the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the local NE FL/SE GA area having below normal rainfall so far this month, this will be welcome rainfall in many locations, but localized flood potential will mainly exist in urban areas and along the Atlantic Coast during high tide cycles. Friday/Saturday...In the wake of departing low pressure system, a weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of the region and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at 10-15G20-25 mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection expected as it moves inland both days and lingering deeper tropical moisture will still lead to above normal rainfall chances in the 40-70% range with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. Max temps bounce back near and slightly above normal levels with highs in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor with lower to middle 90s over inland areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A few bands of stratus will move in off the Atlantic early this morning. These clouds could result in a few restrictions at coastal TAF sites early in this period. Convection will initiate later this morning just inland of KSGJ. This activity will then spread west across NE FL through the afternoon. The KGNV site will have the best chance for restrictions in showers and storms this afternoon into early evening. This convection will dissipate later this evening, with clearing skies for the overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure centered over New England will strengthen as it moves slowly offshore this afternoon. This feature will result in strengthening easterly winds by late this afternoon and evening throughout our local waters, with winds and seas gradually increasing early this week as this high pressure center remains anchored off the New England coastline. Small Craft will need to Exercise Caution if venturing into our local waters on Monday and Monday night, as easterly winds strengthen to 15-20 knots and seas build to 3-5 feet on Monday and 4-6 feet by Monday evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin both near shore and offshore on Tuesday, as onshore winds strengthen to around 20 knots and seas build to 5-7 feet. Low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Atlantic early this week, with this feature gradually organizing towards midweek as it moves westward across the Bahamas, with a low risk for tropical development as this system approaches our local waters late on Wednesday night and Thursday. Please stay tuned to updates from the National Hurricane Center this week for potential changes to this forecast. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase across our local waters, with widespread activity likely by mid to late week. Seas will continue to build, with near shore seas climbing to the 8-11 foot range by Thursday, while seas offshore build to 9-13 feet. Rip Currents: Strengthening easterly winds this afternoon will result in building and increasingly rough surf, especially during the outgoing tide late this afternoon and early this evening. A High Risk of rip currents is expected by late afternoon at the northeast FL beaches, with a high end moderate risk for the southeast GA beaches, where wave heights should remain around 2 feet or less today. A high risk of rip currents is expected for the upcoming work week at all area beaches due to gradually strengthening onshore winds and building seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Easterly surface and transport winds will become breezy this afternoon, creating good to marginally high daytime dispersion values for locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Generally fair dispersion values are expected for north central FL this afternoon. A dry air mass will prevail for inland locations across southeast GA and also for northern portions of the Suwannee Valley today and again on Monday, where afternoon humidity values will fall to the 30-35 percent. Breezy easterly transport winds will prevail area-wide on Monday and Tuesday, with windy surface conditions expected along the I-95 corridor during the afternoon and early evening hours. Good to high daytime dispersion values are forecast throughout our region for the early to middle portions of this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 72 92 71 / 10 0 10 10 SSI 89 80 87 80 / 10 10 30 20 JAX 91 74 90 73 / 10 10 20 20 SGJ 89 79 87 80 / 10 10 30 20 GNV 93 73 92 72 / 40 10 10 10 OCF 93 73 92 73 / 50 20 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-133-138. GA...None. AM...None. && $$