105
FXUS62 KJAX 260508
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
108 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The pattern will continue through the night with region between high
to the east and trough to the north northwest. Most convection will
dissipate this evening with loss of diurnal heating. Lows in the
middle 70s will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and
a trough to the north northwest Wednesday through Thursday. With
this pattern, the low level flow will continue form the southwest.
Convection will initiate during the late morning hours, likely first
on the Gulf sea breeze, then move inland during the afternoon hours.
The east coast sea breeze will also activate during the afternoon
hours, and move inland. The breezes will meet over the east central
portion of the area, where the greatest chances for precipitation is
expected. Much of the convection which does develop will diminish
during the evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will
continue above normal through Thursday.

For Thursday night through Friday, the high will start to build more
toward the east northeast, with the trough remaining to the
northwest. With this change in pattern the low level flow will come
more from the south. Friday will be another stormy day, with sea
breeze interactions enhancing coverage. Temperatures will continue
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fairly persistent troughing will remain to the north northwest this
period. High pressure will be centered to the east early this
period, then to the east Sunday through Tuesday. The movement of the
high will result in changes in the low level flow, with some affect
on the overall movement of storms and initial development zones. In
general it will be a stormy period, with much of the convection
during the day time hours. Temperatures will continue above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions for sites tonight with diurnal
convection expected to return by around 18-20z. There is a chance
of MVFR to IFR ceilings briefly pre-dawn at GNV and VQQ, both will
clear out around sunrise. PROB30s are in place for most of the
TAF sites today for best timing of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fairly persistent troughing will be north northwest of the area
through the upcoming weekend. High pressure ridge will be east of
the region through Wednesday, then to the east southeast into
Thursday. The high will be located to the northeast Friday through
the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, low Wednesday for NE FL.
              Low through Wednesday for SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  74  94  74 /  50  20  60  30
SSI  92  77  94  78 /  40  20  50  30
JAX  96  74  95  75 /  70  20  60  20
SGJ  93  76  94  76 /  70  30  60  20
GNV  94  73  92  73 /  90  20  60  20
OCF  93  76  92  75 /  90  30  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$