Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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534 FXUS62 KJAX 231847 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 247 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 DEVELOPING RAPIDLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft prevail over the area through tonight with a weak trough of low pressure looking even weaker now over inland southeast GA. For the latter feature over southeast GA, shower chances appear small enough in the guidance and per satellite imagery to keep chances less than 15 percent. Otherwise, warm and dry conditions prevail through tonight with patchy fog possible after around 3-4 AM until 8 AM. Low level winds a bit higher early Tuesday morning may prevent more widespread fog developing and warm temps aloft. Min temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected, slightly above normal. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Initially dry weather on Tuesday will give way to more moist conditions by midweek as high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts about to become more out of the south southwest, resulting in increased chances for scattered showers and storms over the forecast area with developments building from south to north as Wednesday progresses. Daily high temperatures will begin to decrease during this period as cloud cover and precipitation increases with max temps dropping out of the lower 90s down into the upper 80s by midweek. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is currently moving over the Northwestern Caribbean with further intensification anticipated as is it makes its way northward towards the Gulf of Mexico. Current forecasted path has the disturbance moving into western and northwestern Florida by Thursday and Friday, with heavy rains and storms building across the forecast area into early Thursday morning with strong winds and tornado development as the primary threats associated with the system. Current forecasts have the tropical system moving north of the region by this weekend with prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the south and southwest before the beginning of next week. Daily high temperatures will trend above the seasonal average this week with max temps expected to reach into the upper 80s and possibly the lower 90s. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR/mostly clear skies at the terminals into late tonight. From around 06z-12z Tuesday, chances for MVFR vsby are indicated for JAX, VQQ, and GNV. Outside chance for IFR vsby/cigs at these terminals, with VQQ the only one with some confidence to show possible 1SM BR. Anticipate VFR all TAFs by 13z Tuesday. Sfc winds will be southeast to east 5-10 kt into early evening today, then light and variable tonight. Southeast winds re-develop after 14z Tuesday at near 5-10 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Light east to southeast winds at 5-10 kt over area waters at this time with seas of 2-4 ft with dominant periods of about 10 seconds. Southeast winds will gradually increase on Tuesday but more markedly on Wednesday with rapidly deteriorating conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions develop late Wed. As Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 heads into the gulf on Wed morning, winds will continue to strengthen with tropical storm conditions possible by early Thursday and continue into Thursday night. There is still uncertainty in the scale, intensity, and track of the tropical system as it develops. All of those factors will influence the local coastal water conditions. Some gradual improvement on Friday as the system pulls away to the north. A trough may linger over the region Friday night into the weekend with winds and seas below small craft advisory levels. RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk of rip currents continues this aftn with surf of about 2-3 ft. Building breakers (3-5 feet) and increasing southeast flow on Wednesday enhances risk to *High* levels for at least NE FL beaches. Dangerous surf conditions are likely Thursday as influences from tropical system are most likely to begin. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Action to minor tidal flooding continues within the St Johns River basin through mid week before influences from potential tropical cyclone 9 tracking northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico begin. Current forecast track shows the system moving northward to the FL panhandle by Thu into early Friday morning. There is uncertainty on the track and intensity but the system is fairly large. We could be looking at tidal levels back into Minor or low-end Moderate flood at times of high tide along the Atlantic coast by Thursday evening. Given the current elevated tides already ongoing in the St Johns River, the potential for Moderate Flooding and impacts are possible during at least Thursday and Friday high tides. Preparations should be considered for low-lying areas along the St Johns River, especially in the Downtown Jacksonville, San Marco, & Riverside areas along with other flood prone locations in the upper St Johns in Clay, St Johns, and Putnam counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 91 70 88 / 10 0 0 10 SSI 75 86 76 85 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 71 89 74 87 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 74 88 76 87 / 0 0 0 20 GNV 69 91 72 89 / 0 0 0 30 OCF 69 93 74 90 / 0 10 0 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ033-038- 125-132-137-225-325. GA...None. AM...None. && $$