518
FXUS62 KJAX 230024
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
824 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Drier air on the west side of the low just north of the Altamaha
River in Liberty County have really limited land based convection
with drier continental airmass and subsidence with most
convection being maritime based. This low is forecast to remain
stationary or meander very slowly around the area with a slight
drift to the west for the next 18 hours depending on the model.
Have tempered precipitation chances for the rest of the this
afternoon to mainly to isolated to widely scattered and mainly
east of highway 301.

By late tonight the Bermuda High may slide a bit farther east,
ushering in a light WSW flow. This could lead to more storms in
the morning across the Gulf that drift onshore into the Suwannee
Valley during the pre-dawn hours. With the low in the vicinity of
interior SE GA another convective area may develop toward daybreak
on the east side of the inland low with PWATs between 1.75 to just
over 2 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 124 PM Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper trough remains stationary just offshore of the FL/GA
coastline while Bermuda ridge sets up to our east...with
northwest flow aloft over the forecast area with upstream ridging
building in. We will have a predominate W-SW flow regime Sunday
and Monday with an active Gulf flow and sea breeze. On Sunday, the
west coast sea breeze may meet up with east coast seabreeze near
I-95 during the afternoon. On Monday, looks to be more of a
straight forward Gulf of Mexico west seabreeze regime. Both days
there will be scattered to numerous showers and storms with
greatest coverage across NE FL.   Unseasonably hot temperatures are
expected through the short term period with mid/upper level ridging
extending over our area from the west with ridge retrograding
slightly on Monday. 850mb temperatures will rise to 21-22C Sunday
and Monday, likely to translate to above normal high temperatures
in the mid 90s inland, near 90 coast Sunday, with mid-upper 90s
inland Monday, lower 90s coast...a few locations in interior SE GA
could peak just shy or near 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index
values each day will likely be in the 95-105 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The upper pattern changes little Tuesday until Wednesday Night
and Thursday when an upper trough digs SE toward our forecast
area, With a moist environment in place, and active sea breezes
with above normal inland temps, expecting to see scattered to
numerous showers/storms each afternoon.

Above normal high and low temperatures will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday...with some areas particularly in interior SE GA seeing
high temperatures near 100 degrees.... and with afternoon heat
index values of 100-105 each day. Current consensus guidance
maintains above normal temperatures right through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 823 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The 00Z TAF period will include some MVFR/IFR restrictions for
T`storms near CRG and JAX that should fade by 02Z with VCSH along
the coast north and south of JAX/CRG and at GNV through 06Z.
Light southerly winds tonight will settle to under 5 knots inland
after 06Z and remain 5-10 knots along the coast with VFR ceilings
and clearing mid level clouds late. Sunday, showers along the
coast will move inland and turn to convection with VCTS at all
sites after 18-20Z with PROB30 groups for MVFR restrictions at all
TAF sites Sunday afternoon after 18Z. South to southwesterly
winds 5-8 knots will turn southeasterly behind the Atlantic
seabreeze at SGJ,CRG and southerly at JAX, SSI, and VQQ 17-20Z
8-10 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The coastal Georgia surface low is now north of our area and
largely devoid of significant convection. Right now there are a
few showers rotating around it with the most significant
convection well offshore. With daytime heating going to give it
the benefit of the doubt and leave TEMPOs for TSRA in the TAFs
until 2302 utc, but suspect most activity at any one field will
be very brief and mainly showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure will shift towards Bermuda this weekend with
decreasing winds and seas with a more typical summer sea breeze-
like pattern returning into early next week. Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop over our local waters this
weekend and into next week as prevailing winds become southerly
ahead of a weakening surface trough that will settle over the
southeastern states through midweek.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA
beaches as winds shift more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  73  95  75 /  20  20  50  10
SSI  86  75  91  78 /  70  50  60  20
JAX  89  74  93  75 /  30  40  70  20
SGJ  89  74  92  75 /  40  40  70  30
GNV  94  72  93  73 /  20  30  80  20
OCF  94  75  93  75 /  30  40  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$