Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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191 FXUS62 KJAX 100625 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 225 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through at least 21Z at the regional terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach the SSI terminal from the northwest after 21Z, with a strong or isolated severe thunderstorm possible through around 01Z Tuesday. We included a PROB30 group for wind gusts up to 30 knots and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours. Otherwise, an isolated shower could develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours near the SGJ terminal, but confidence remains too low to include anything other than vicinity coverage at this time. West- southwesterly winds sustained around 5 knots or less at the inland terminals and 5-10 knots at the coastal terminals will increase after sunrise, with sustained speeds expected to climb to around 10 knots before 16Z. Surface winds will shift to southeasterly at 10-15 knots at SGJ after 19Z following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary, while surface winds shift to southerly at 10-15 knots at SSI. Outside of thunderstorm activity, surface winds will then shift to southwesterly at 5-10 knots after 01Z Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Dry and a little warmer tonight with shallow inland ground fog potential, mainly across NE FL near and south of the I-10 corridor. High pressure begins to nudge south of the local area as a trough deepens across the eastern CONUS. Expect increasing mid and high clouds from the NW overnight over SE GA while mostly clear skies continue across NE FL. With the approaching trough, westerly winds will remain a little more elevated tonight (2-4 mph) bringing slightly warmer low temperatures compared to this morning, ranging from the lower 70s inland to mid/upper 70s toward the St. Johns River basin & Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Frontal trough is expected to sink south into southern GA during the day on Monday. An upper wave is forecast to move along this boundary Monday afternoon and evening, which will help to promote higher chances for convection, especially over SE GA. Lower chances will be expected across NE FL on Monday, but combination of increasing moisture, diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions will result in convection. Another above normal day is expected on Monday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. The frontal zone will lay out near the GA/FL line Monday night. While convective chances will diminish during the evening due to loss of diurnal heating, with the boundary still in place activity may linger through the overnight. Lows in the lower 70s. For Tuesday, the surface boundary will linger over area as it weakens. At the same time a wave of moisture will move north northeast across region as energy gathers over the Gulf. The greatest chances for convection will be over NE FL, where it will generally be a wet and stormy day. Once again, this activity could linger through the night, especially for NE FL, which will be along and south of the boundary. With the added cloud cover and rainfall, highs will be a little lower, generally in the lower 90s. Lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Long range model trends have changed over the last 24 hours. The models had been focusing the moisture plume from a Gulf system over region this period. The latest runs keep the plume over central to southern FL for much of this period, with the Gulf low taking much longer to develop and move further north. While daily convective chances are expected this period, these chances and the overall rainfall amounts will be lower in Todays forecast than yesterday. Depending on which way the rainfall plume focuses temperatures will be affected. With the current location, highs will generally be within a few degrees of seasonal averages. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A frontal boundary will move south into region on Monday, and stall over area through Tuesday. A weak frontal zone will remain over the region into next weekend as a plume of moisture rides over area from energy expected to develop in the Gulf. Rip Currents: Low through Monday && .CLIMATE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Record high temperatures at official local climate sites: June 9 June 10 -------------------------- Jacksonville 101/1872 100/1954 Gainesville 99/1907 99/1899 Alma, GA 99/1993 103/1954 Craig Airport 97/2006 99/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 71 92 70 / 60 60 30 10 SSI 92 74 89 76 / 40 60 60 30 JAX 99 73 94 73 / 20 30 70 30 SGJ 98 74 93 74 / 20 40 80 40 GNV 97 72 94 71 / 10 30 80 30 OCF 97 73 92 72 / 20 40 80 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$