488
FXUS62 KJAX 221624
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1224 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak high pressure ridge settles over the area today with a
continued NE Flow along the Atlantic Coast, which will continue
showers along the Flagler County coastal areas, but otherwise
Mostly Sunny and dry elsewhere with above normal temps continuing
with highs around 90F inland and mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic
Coast. Not as breezy today with Northeast winds at 10-15G20 mph
along the Atlantic Coast and 5-10G15 mph over inland areas. Weak
high pressure lingers over the area tonight and under clear skies
and calm winds over inland areas, expect low temps in the
mid/upper 60s and locally dense fog to develop towards morning,
with the lowest visibilities expected across inland NE FL and
along the I-75 corridor and dense fog advisories may be required
close to sunrise Monday morning. Closer to the Atlantic Coast,
some patchy fog will be possible as winds become light and
variable during the overnight hours with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)

Light fog development early this morning will be patchier in
nature compared to the last few mornings and favor inland regions,
west of I-95.

The dry weather pattern, dictated by an abnormally dry airmass,
continues today under the influence of dry northerly flow and a
surface weakening surface ridge of high pressure. That high will
slide to the east today allowing winds to swing easterly by
tonight. Showers will be focused mainly over the coastal Atlantic
waters along a coastal trough but, like yesterday, a few showers
may advect into portions of the Flagler county coast. Otherwise,
the stable airmass will keep rain chances nil across the rest of
the area. Clear, calm conditions tonight will lend the potential
for patchy inland fog and locally dense fog may develop.

Slight bump in temperatures today amid the drier airmass and ridging
aloft. Inland areas will make a run toward 90F while onshore flow
will keep the coastal areas in the mid 80s. Under clear skies
tonight, lows will fall toward the upper 60s and low 70s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The dry pattern continues during the first couple of days of the
upcoming week with high pressure over the region. Light easterly-
southeasterly winds through the period as the high pressure
begins to shift towards the east. Early morning fog may develop
during the early morning hours for far inland locations with clear
skies and weak overnight winds. Temperature highs for in the mid
to upper 80s along the coast, with highs in the lower 90s for
inland locations. Overnight lows expected to be in the upper 60s
for locations across SE GA and in the lower 70s across NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Guidance continues trending towards the development of a low
pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico during the later half of
the upcoming week, with NHC now showing 70% confidence of
development during the next 7 days. The exact path of any system
that may development will be contingent on an upper trough which
is expected to develop and trek eastward from the central CONUS.
This trough would influence whether the system takes a more
northward or northeastern path, leaving the extent of any local
impacts from this system still uncertain.

Be sure to restock supply kits and review family evacuation plans.
Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

NE Flow along the NE FL coast is producing some MVFR CIGS this
afternoon at SGJ, otherwise VFR conds at all other TAF sites
through the evening hours. Near calm winds develop after sunset
tonight and expect fog to be a bigger issue late tonight with IFR
conds likely at VQQ/GNV in the 08-12Z time frame, along with MVFR
vsbys at JAX/CRG more likely in the 10-12Z time frame, but not
expected along the coast at SSI/SGJ. VFR conds return in the
13-14Z time frame as fog lifts/dissipates and some FEW-SCT diurnal
Cumulus develops late in the TAF period, but not expecting any
MVFR CIGS at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow continues but will ease today as high pressure slides
into the waters from the north. A weak pressure pattern will
continue through the middle of next week as high pressure lingers
to the east northeast. During the second half of next week, an
area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop
into a broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the
National Hurricane Center for forecasts and updates with the
potential tropical disturbance next week.

RIP CURRENTS...Despite easing onshore flow, lingering surf around
3-5 feet will lead to a Moderate Risk of rip currents at area
beaches today. Mellowing surf and lighter winds will continue to
lower risk through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Decreasing astronomical tidal influences and easing onshore flow
will lower tidal levels this afternoon. Elevated tide is expected
along the southeast GA coast but it is unlikely to reach Minor
Flood levels. As such, the previous Coastal Flood Advisory for
Camden and Glynn county has been cancelled. Minor tidal flooding
remains a concern for the Atlantic beaches of northern Florida
and the St Johns River basin. Trapped tides are likely to continue
minor flood within the St Johns River and its tributaries into
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  92  69 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  85  73  86  74 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  89  68  90  72 /   0  10   0   0
SGJ  87  71  88  74 /  30  10   0   0
GNV  92  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  92  68  92  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-125-
     132-137-225-325.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ124-
     133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$