112
FXUS62 KJAX 250006
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
806 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon and Tonight...Forecast on track this afternoon as
hot and humid West to Southwest flow pattern will push Max Temps
into the mid/upper 90s and combine with dew points in the 70s to
produce widespread peak Heat Indices into the 105-110 range, with
Heat Advisory levels (HI>=108) expected along the I-95 corridor
(Atlantic Coastal Counties) and I-10 corridor (Portions of Inland
NE FL) this afternoon. Expect the W-SW flow to delay the onset of
the East Coast sea breeze moving inland until the late
afternoon/early evening hours, which will combine with shortwave
trough aloft, currently over GA/SC region that will track SE into
the local area and help to trigger scattered to numerous
showers/storms with isolated severe storms possible with damaging
downburst winds of 50-60 mph possible with storm mergers or storm
outflows that interact with the East Coast sea breeze. Slow and
erratic storm motion around 10 mph or less will also promote
localized flood threat in urban areas. With the late start to
convection today, expect storms to continue over inland areas
until around midnight, with convection fading during the early
overnight hours and mainly just fair skies and humid conditions
towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Warm overnight lows in the middle
70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and
a series of troughs which will each stall just to the northwest of
the area this period. This pattern will yield a prevailing southwest
flow. It will be an unsettled period, with afternoon convection
initiated far inland, aided by the Gulf sea breeze. The east coast
sea breeze will make a little progress in the afternoons, but will
struggle to get past I95 due to push of the Gulf breeze. A secondary
max in convection will be possible in the afternoons due to
convergence of sea breezes near I95. Any activity which develops
during the afternoons is expected to dissipate during the evening
hours, with nights mainly dry.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A pattern change is expected this period, with the high becoming
located more toward the east northeast. Troughs are still expected
to move into the southeastern US and stall to the northwest this
period. The prevailing flow will largely be from the south, with
both east and west coast sea breezes becoming active. Afternoon
merges of the sea breezes will be possible. Any activity which
develops in the afternoons will largely diminish during the evening
hours with loss of diurnal heating, with mainly dry nights.

Temperatures and precipitation chances will be above normal this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Evening showers and storms will continue to develop along the sea
breeze boundaries and areas of convergence with storms over TAF
sites expected to begin diminishing by around 03z. Lingering
showers will disperse overnight with mild winds in place through
about 18-20z with convection and building wind speeds towards the
end of the forecasted period. Potential for reduced visibilities
at VQQ and GNV in the early morning hours on Tuesday, between
about 07-11z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Persistent troughing will be to the northwest of the area this week.
High pressure to the east through Thursday, will move more toward
the northeast late in the week. Winds will approach advisory levels
this afternoon and evening, and winds will be below headline levels
the rest of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today. Tuesday, Low SE GA and Moderate NE
FL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  99  75  97 /  20  30  10  50
SSI  78  92  78  92 /  30  40  20  50
JAX  76  96  75  94 /  50  60  20  60
SGJ  76  94  76  92 /  40  60  30  70
GNV  74  95  73  93 /  40  80  30  90
OCF  74  95  75  93 /  50  80  40  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$