Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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379 FXUS62 KJAX 251815 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 215 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Showers and storms will build in today and tonight from out of the south with winds strengthening from out of the southeast as Hurricane Helene moves northward through the Gulf. Winds will build to be about 20 mph by early Tuesday morning with wind gusts building to about 30 mph or higher as outer bands from the storm move into the forecast area. High temperatures this afternoon will reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s.Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coast. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 This will be the most impactful time frame for NE FL and SE GA as Helene is forecast to make landfall as a Major Hurricane in the Florida Big Bend area on Thursday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect, a Flood Watch for the entire NE FL and SE GA area, and dangerous beach conditions are expected. In addition to the general 1-3ft surge along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns river basin, localized amounts up to 4 feet are possible from the Buckman Bridge to Mayport in Jacksonville and along the SE GA coast. Widespread 3-6 inches of rain in pair with surge flooding will create issues in prone areas, especially where significant rainfall totals have occurred in the last month. Several tornadoes will also be possible within the outer bands, especially north of I-10 and near the SE GA coast early Thursday through Thursday night. By Friday mid-morning, most of the area will be clear from Helene impacts, with lingering gusty southwesterly winds expected through the day as Helene tracks northward and drier air moves into the region. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday due to the storminess, with high temperatures returning to near normal on Friday as the clouds clear up. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Helene will fully merge with the aforementioned upper low over the Mississippi River Valley area Friday Night, with a dry slot across most of the area and a lingering frontal boundary just to our south. Each day, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop, mainly in the afternoons. High temperatures will be generally near normal over NE FL, and a few degrees below normal for SE GA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Scattered showers have been noted mainly across the southern portion of the area this afternoon in association with Hurricane Helene`s far outer rain bands. Expect the overall activity to spread northward across the area by tonight and Thursday morning as Helene moves northward. By Thursday morning around 15-16z, expect stronger winds with gusts reaching 35-40kt by midday as Helene tracks across the northeast Gulf. Conditions will continue to deteriorate further during the day Thursday as Helene makes its closest approach to the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Hurricane Helene continues to move northward through the gulf this afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gradually strengthen through the day reaching tropical storm strength by Thursday morning, lingering at these levels into Friday. The tropical system will begin to move away from the area sometime on Friday. With a trough lingering over the area into the weekend, conditions are not expected to be at small craft advisory levels. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents on for all area beaches through Friday as southeasterly flow increases ahead of Hurricane Helene over the Gulf of Mexico. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A Flood Watch for all of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida is in effect. Excessive rainfall due to Tropical Storm Helene will likely result in scattered areas of flash flooding and isolated episodes of considerable flash flooding, particularly in urban flood prone locations and areas that received a lot of rainfall this month. Widespread 3-6" of rain is forecast, with locally higher amounts. Strong southeasterly flow in response to the tropical system may bring tidal levels back into Minor or low- end Moderate flood at times of high tide along the Atlantic coast by Thursday evening. Given the current elevated tides already ongoing in the St Johns River, the potential for Moderate Flooding and impacts are possible during at least Thursday and Friday high tides. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 81 72 85 / 80 100 80 10 SSI 75 84 77 87 / 80 90 80 20 JAX 75 86 76 90 / 80 90 80 20 SGJ 76 87 77 91 / 80 90 80 30 GNV 74 84 75 88 / 80 100 70 30 OCF 75 86 77 89 / 80 90 70 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ023-024-030-031-033-038-124-125- 132-133-136>138-140-225-232-237-240-325-425. Hurricane Warning for FLZ021-035-120-220-236-322-340-422-522. Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133- 136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for FLZ033-038-132- 137. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133- 138-225-325. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ124-125-133- 138. High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 4 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ133>136-151>154-165-166-250-264- 350-364. Hurricane Warning for GAZ132-149-162-163. Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 4 PM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. Hurricane Watch for GAZ133. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$