Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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699 FXUS62 KJAX 220117 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 917 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The forecast is generally on track this evening with only minor tweaks to the rainfall amounts and shower/isolated T`storms that have mostly conglomerated over the southern St Johns river basin into Marion county and will see some focus over St Johns county work up the coast towards St Simons Island after midnight into the pre dawn hours as the weak tropical low approaches the coast between Fernandina Beach to St Simons Island. Otherwise winds will veer around to southerly over NE FL later tonight and turn east to southeasterly over the SE GA coast as the low shifts onshore with variable light winds over the SE GA interior. Lows tonight will be muggy in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 at the coast. Ongoing light showers Saturday morning along the coast will give way to scattered to numerous T`storms Saturday afternoon as the tropical airmass, diurnal instability and Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes work inland and merge inland. Highs Saturday will rise into the upper 80s along the immediate coast with low 90s over inland NE FL and isolated mid 90s west of I-75. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Main headline continues to be an area of low pressure spinning offshore off our coast, known as Invest 92L per the National Hurricane Center. The system has been close to being able to be called a tropical depression or storm over the past 12 to 18 hours, as the NHC "hurricane hunters" did find winds up to 35mph near some bursts of convection this morning. However, the low has not remained organized enough for any consistent period to be classified as a tropical cyclone. We recommend referencing products from the NHC for for further information. Regardless of classification or "name", the low is steadily moving to the west-northwest, and is expected to make landfall along the southeast GA coastline by this evening. Impacts remain as stated for the past several forecasts: High risk for dangerous rip currents lasting through at least tonight, high surf at area beaches, and breezy conditions through the rest of the near term (especially by the coast). Showers and perhaps a few isolated t`storms should continue to pinwheel onshore this afternoon/evening and into tonight, with rain chances cutting off rather quickly the further inland you go. PWAT values around or above 2 inches will result in some locally heavy downpours, as well as the possibility for some gusts up to 40 mph. Temps will only top off in the mid to upper 80s from about I-95 to the coast, and into the low 90s further inland. More low level moisture will result in generally more milder temps overnight, especially inland. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Southeasterly- southerly flow will gradually transition to be from the southwest- south through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds towards the north- northeast of the area. Light winds over inland locations with breezy winds over the local waters expected for this weekend. A typical summertime convective pattern with daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected this weekend and into the upcoming week. Temperatures are expected to sit around normal levels over the weekend as the overall flow will transition to be from the southwest by Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Southwesterly flow will continue through the upcoming week, as an upper level ridge remains over the region. Latest guidance suggests a fairly wet pattern for our area with daily bouts of scattered/numerous showers and t-storms with sea breeze interactions in a moist environment, with PWATs expected in the 1.5-2.0 range for the local area. With the continued southwesterly flow, look for daily daytime temperatures to sit in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices reaching into the triple digits. Overnight lows will sit around the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The 00Z TAF period will begin with a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings as a weak low moves onshore the coast between JAX and SSI later this evening by 06Z and weakens as it moves inland thereafter. Tropical moisture over the area along with low level spin and coastal convergence will keep VCSH at JAX, CRG, SGJ, and SSI overnight with tempo restrictions for MVFR ceilings and visibility from showers, heavy at times closer along the immediate coast at SGJ through 05Z-06Z, then shift north to SSI after 06Z through sunrise. Winds from the northeast will become southerly overnight over the NE Florida TAF sites and easterly to southeasterly at SSI overnight 5-10 knots along the coast and 3-5 knots inland. Light southerly flow will allow the Atlantic seabreeze and Gulf coast seabreezes to move inland on Saturday with southeast winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze at duval county and coastal TAF sites and southwesterly behind the Gulf coast seabreeze at GNV. Steady showers at SSI will become more convective and have PROB30 groups for all sites between 18Z and 24Z for seabreeze induced thunderstorms that will yield MVFR restrictions for Ceilings and visibility as storms are aided by strong diurnal heating Saturday afternoon. Winds will be highest at the coast around 10 knots in the afternoon and lighter inland 5-8 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 An area of low pressure over offshore waters will continue to move northwestward towards the southeast GA coast through tonight. There is a chance for this low to develop into a tropical depression prior to moving onshore, but development into a tropical cyclone is not expected at this time. Strong high pressure ridging situated from the northeast has resulted in an increased pressure gradient, which will persist small craft advisory conditions through at least this evening before low pressure weakens onshore tonight. High pressure relaxes over waters this weekend and into the start of next week, with a more typical summer sea breeze-like pattern returning. Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains high through this evening along with high surf due to the continuing onshore winds associated with a tropical low offshore. Rip current risk lowers slightly for Saturday as onshore conditions weaken. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024...updated The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday, as locally heavy rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible along the Interstate 95 corridor as Invest 92-L impacts our region with bands of heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts further inland will likely remain below one inch. Rainfall will be mostly beneficial, but there will be concerns for flooding at urban locations where rain bands train repeatedly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 89 73 95 / 20 70 30 50 SSI 77 87 76 91 / 60 70 60 60 JAX 74 90 73 93 / 40 70 60 60 SGJ 75 90 74 92 / 60 70 70 70 GNV 72 92 73 93 / 30 70 40 70 OCF 74 93 75 93 / 40 70 40 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470. && $$