379
FXUS62 KJAX 251815
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
215 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers and storms will build in today and tonight from out of
the south with winds strengthening from out of the southeast as
Hurricane Helene moves northward through the Gulf. Winds will
build to be about 20 mph by early Tuesday morning with wind gusts
building to about 30 mph or higher as outer bands from the storm
move into the forecast area. High temperatures this afternoon will
reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s.Overnight low temperatures
will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the
upper 70s along the coast.

Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

This will be the most impactful time frame for NE FL and SE GA as
Helene is forecast to make landfall as a Major Hurricane in the
Florida Big Bend area on Thursday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, a Flood Watch for the entire NE FL and SE
GA area, and dangerous beach conditions are expected. In addition
to the general 1-3ft surge along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns
river basin, localized amounts up to 4 feet are possible from the
Buckman Bridge to Mayport in Jacksonville and along the SE GA
coast. Widespread 3-6 inches of rain in pair with surge flooding
will create issues in prone areas, especially where significant
rainfall totals have occurred in the last month. Several tornadoes
will also be possible within the outer bands, especially north of
I-10 and near the SE GA coast early Thursday through Thursday
night.

By Friday mid-morning, most of the area will be clear from Helene
impacts, with lingering gusty southwesterly winds expected
through the day as Helene tracks northward and drier air moves
into the region. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday due to
the storminess, with high temperatures returning to near normal on
Friday as the clouds clear up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Helene will fully merge with the aforementioned upper low over
the Mississippi River Valley area Friday Night, with a dry slot
across most of the area and a lingering frontal boundary just to
our south. Each day, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop, mainly in the afternoons. High temperatures will be
generally near normal over NE FL, and a few degrees below normal
for SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Scattered showers have been noted mainly across the southern
portion of the area this afternoon in association with Hurricane
Helene`s far outer rain bands. Expect the overall activity to
spread northward across the area by tonight and Thursday morning
as Helene moves northward. By Thursday morning around 15-16z,
expect stronger winds with gusts reaching 35-40kt by midday as
Helene tracks across the northeast Gulf. Conditions will continue
to deteriorate further during the day Thursday as Helene makes its
closest approach to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Hurricane Helene continues to move northward through the gulf this
afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gradually strengthen through
the day reaching tropical storm strength by Thursday morning,
lingering at these levels into Friday. The tropical system will
begin to move away from the area sometime on Friday. With a trough
lingering over the area into the weekend, conditions are not
expected to be at small craft advisory levels.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents on for all area beaches
through Friday as southeasterly flow increases ahead of Hurricane
Helene over the Gulf of Mexico.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A Flood Watch for all of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida
is in effect. Excessive rainfall due to Tropical Storm Helene
will likely result in scattered areas of flash flooding and
isolated episodes of considerable flash flooding, particularly in
urban flood prone locations and areas that received a lot of
rainfall this month. Widespread 3-6" of rain is forecast, with
locally higher amounts. Strong southeasterly flow in response to
the tropical system may bring tidal levels back into Minor or low-
end Moderate flood at times of high tide along the Atlantic coast
by Thursday evening. Given the current elevated tides already
ongoing in the St Johns River, the potential for Moderate Flooding
and impacts are possible during at least Thursday and Friday high
tides.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  81  72  85 /  80 100  80  10
SSI  75  84  77  87 /  80  90  80  20
JAX  75  86  76  90 /  80  90  80  20
SGJ  76  87  77  91 /  80  90  80  30
GNV  74  84  75  88 /  80 100  70  30
OCF  75  86  77  89 /  80  90  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ023-024-030-031-033-038-124-125-
     132-133-136>138-140-225-232-237-240-325-425.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ021-035-120-220-236-322-340-422-522.

     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday morning
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for FLZ033-038-132-
     137.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-
     138-225-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

     High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 4 PM EDT Friday for
     FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ133>136-151>154-165-166-250-264-
     350-364.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ132-149-162-163.

     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday morning
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 4 PM EDT Friday for
     GAZ154-166.

     Hurricane Watch for GAZ133.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$