![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
471 FXUS62 KJAX 231911 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Troughing stretching across the eastern US will maintain west- northwest flow across the area today. Outflow boundary from morning convection across north-central FL continues to lift northward and collide with the inland moving sea breezes this afternoon developing scattered convection. Mid-level dry air has filtered in from the northwest lowering dewpoints into the low-mid 60s across inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley. Storms may be strong as they develop along boundary collisions in NE FL with the mid- level dry air increasing DCAPE values. Sea breezes will likely collide near the U.S. Highway 17 corridor late this afternoon, with activity likely migrating towards the I-95 corridor towards sunset. Convection subsides by midnight. Early morning showers developing in the Nature Coast may move into Marion and Gilchrist counties in the pre-dawn hours. Overnight lows be in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A weakening frontal boundary approaches the area on Monday, with a south to southwesterly flow persisting out ahead of if it as the Bermuda high will be centered almost due east of the First Coast. The flow should be strong enough to keep the sea breeze pinned in the vicinity of I-95 and towards the coastline. The focus for sea breeze convection will be generally along this area, although the presence of the diffuse boundary as well as perhaps some outflow from earlier convection from the northwest could also play factor, and therefore possibly a source of "secondary" chances over more inland southeast GA. The aforementioned boundary essentially stalls and weakens/becomes diffuse just north of southeast GA counties Monday Night and into Tuesday. Guidance is suggesting some lingering drier air bleeding into areas generally from about Waycross northward tomorrow, with PWATs in the 1.2 to 1.5 inch range (below climo). Therefore, convective chances look to be lower in these areas and mainly focused approaching I-10 and southward. The southwesterly flow regime will result in temperatures above average for both Monday and Tuesday: in the mid to upper 90s, almost all the way to the immediate coastline. The majority of the area is expected to remain just below heat advisory criteria, though some spots could see heat indices flirting with that threshold at times, especially around the St. Johns River to the coast and Suwannee Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The pattern remains pretty stagnant into Wednesday with south to southwest flow and diurnal convection along the sea breeze collision area inland. Another frontal boundary approaches Thursday and similarly stalls out and becomes diffuse to our north, though will bring increased layer moisture ahead of it which should essentially last into Friday and the start of the weekend. High pressure behind the front will start to build more to our northeast by Friday and into the weekend, which should return more of a weaker flow out of the east to southeast and therefore a pretty typical summer sea breeze type of pattern. Temps start above average for this period, but gradually trend more towards normal as the synoptic flow becomes more broad and weaker compared to earlier in the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Southwesterly flow this morning will shift to southeasterly as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland to the I-95 corridor. Coastal TAF sites could see gusts up to 18 kts behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms across north-central FL will gradually shift northward into GNV between 20Z-24Z with brief gusty winds and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours. Showers and storms will also develop along the Atlantic sea breeze and be in the vicinity of the rest of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 South-southeasterly winds develop this afternoon over the near shore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. Winds will shift to south- southwesterly and will surge to Caution levels throughout our local waters this evening outside of ongoing thunderstorm activity. West-southwesterly winds will prevail for the rest of the week as another trough settles over the southeastern states, with scattered thunderstorm chances prevailing each afternoon and evening as activity moves eastward across our local waters. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches. The easterly swell will begin to fade on Monday, dropping the risk to low for the southeast GA beaches, while onshore winds during the afternoon keep a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 96 75 98 / 10 40 20 40 SSI 79 95 79 93 / 20 30 30 30 JAX 76 97 75 96 / 30 40 20 50 SGJ 76 96 77 94 / 30 50 30 50 GNV 75 95 74 95 / 40 70 20 70 OCF 74 94 75 94 / 50 80 20 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ021-120-220- 322-422-522. GA...None. AM...None. && $$