394
FXUS62 KJAX 222340
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
740 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 514 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A quick update to let the Coastal Flood Advisory for minor tidal
water inundation expire at 5 pm local time as water level
subside from afternoon high tide. Minor tidal flooding will
continue within the St. Johns River basin through the upcoming
week where the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect.

Only light showers late this afternoon for portions of NE FL in a
weak convergent band near and south of Marineland with some
diurnal showers across Putnam and Marion counties. This activity
will fade with loss of heating by 8 pm as the surface ridge axis
extends across NE FL. A few fading showers are possible near the
Altamaha River basin between sunset and midnight as a weak surface
front shifts southward before bumping into the ridge axis across
NE FL which will limit southward progress. The main weather impact
tonight will be inland areas of fog, some locally dense toward
daybreak, especially toward the I-75 corridor of NE FL.

Dry air mixed down today and combined with clear skies and calm
winds overnight expect seasonally cool low temperatures in the
mid 60s inland to low 70s coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak high pressure ridge settles over the area this afternoon
with a continued NE Flow along the Atlantic Coast, which will
continue showers along the coastal areas south of St. Augustine
and inland to Putnam/Marion Counties through sunset, but otherwise
Mostly Sunny and dry elsewhere with above normal temps continuing
with highs around 90F inland and middle 80s along the Atlantic
Coast. Not as breezy this afternoon with Northeast winds at
10-15G20 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 5-10G15 mph over inland
areas. Weak high pressure lingers over the area tonight and under
mostly clear skies and calm winds over inland areas, expect low
temps in the mid/upper 60s and locally dense fog to develop
towards morning, with the lowest visibility expected across inland
NE FL and along the I-75 corridor and dense fog advisories may be
required close to sunrise Monday morning. Closer to the Atlantic
Coast, some patchy fog will be possible as winds become light and
variable during the overnight hours with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

High pressure over the region will continue to dominate the
weather pattern through Tuesday with PWAT values measuring between
1 and 1.5 inches. Prevailing flow will shift to become more out
of the southeast and south as high pressure gradually shifts more
towards the east. Potential for isolated coastal showers to
develop along Flagler and St Johns Counties through Tuesday with
patchy to dense early morning fog expected to develop over inland
areas during this period. High temperatures for the beginning of
the week will be in the lower 90s over inland areas and in the
upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will
drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Initially dry weather will give way to more moist conditions as
high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts
about to become more out of the south, resulting in increased
chances for showers and storms for the end of the week. Potential
tropical formation in the gulf is still listed as having a 80%
chance of formation in the next 7 days by the NHC, however the
precise track and timing of any possible tropical developments
remain somewhat ambiguous at this time, however abundant rainfall
associated with the system is expected for the region. Daily high
temperatures will experience a cooling trend this as the week
progresses with max temps dropping to be below the seasonal
average by the end of the forecast period.

Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions this evening under light and variable winds and
just a few passing low and mid clouds. Not much change to
advertised MVFR to LIFR conditions after 06z for inland terminals
including MVFR at JAX and CRG, IFR at GNV and LIFR at VQQ through
12-13z Monday due to shallow ground fog. Weak land breeze at
coastal terminals SSI and SGJ < 3 kts expected toward sunrise.
Fog will lift into a low stratus deck through mid-morning Monday,
then VFR conditions expected by 16-18z under light and variable
winds < 7 kts inland while coastal winds will become more ESE 7-10
kts into the afternoon. Dry conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Onshore flow continues but will ease today as high pressure
slides into the waters. A weak pressure pattern will continue
through the middle of next week as high pressure lingers to the
east northeast. During the second half of next week, an area of
disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a
broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical
disturbance next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for rip currents for areas beaches
through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Decreasing astronomical tidal influences and easing onshore flow
will lower tidal levels this afternoon. Minor tidal flooding
remains a concern for the St Johns River basin. Trapped tides are
likely to continue minor flood within the St Johns River and its
tributaries into the coming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  91  69  91 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  71  86  74  86 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  69  90  72  90 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  73  88  74  89 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  66  92  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  92  71  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-125-
     132-137-225-325.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$