121
FXUS62 KJAX 140513
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
113 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Region will be between high pressure to the north northwest and a
frontal boundary to the south southeast Today. This will provide for
an onshore flow Today. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm
will move ashore off the Atlantic this morning. This activity will
push inland through the day, with activity focusing on the I75
corridor late in the afternoon. In general, precipitation chances
will be low throughout the day. With loss of diurnal heating
activity is expected to diminish this evening, with a dry overnight
forecast. Temperatures will be above normal Today, with coolest
readings at the coast, due to the onshore flow. Lows Tonight, will
range from the lower 70s inland, to the mid 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Saturday...Pocket of drier air aloft will limit rainfall chances
ahead of southward moving frontal boundary across the SE US north
of the local area and this will bring very hot temps into the
mid/upper 90s over inland areas, while East Coast sea breeze along
the Atlantic Beaches/I-95 corridor will keep Max Temps topping
out in the lower 90s. These highs will push heat indices into the
100-105F range during the afternoon hours. Convection will remain
isolated across SE GA with scattered showers/storms across NE FL,
mainly south of the I-10 corridor.

Saturday Night...Mainly dry and warm conditions as frontal
boundary lingers just north of the local area and expecting mainly
just convection over the Atlantic Coastal waters. Above normal
temps continue with lows in the lower to middle 70s inland and
upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

Sunday...High pressure starts to build into the Carolinas and
moisture from dissipating frontal boundary that was north of the
region will push into the local area as Easterly low level flow
become more breezy along the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures will
remain above normal over inland areas in the middle 90s along
with heat indices still in the 100-105F range, while the onshore
flow will keep highs closer to 90F along the I-95 corridor and
Atlantic beaches. Scattered showers and storms are expected area
wide with rainfall chances in the 30-50% range.

Sunday Night...Easterly flow continues with showers/storms over
the Atlantic Coastal waters and pushing into the Atlantic Coastal
Counties at times and this will keep temps elevated in the upper
70s/near 80 along the coast and lower to middle 70s over inland
areas with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

High pressure ridge axis remains in place at the surface through
the period with breezy Easterly flow at 15-25 mph along the
Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20 mph over inland areas each day.
This flow pattern will return temps to near normal values with
highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor
and into the lower 90s over inland areas. The onshore flow will
continue scattered showers/storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters
through the period that will move onshore each day as the East
Coast sea breeze moves well inland. Rainfall chances will be in
the 30-50% range early in the week, with highest chances across NE
FL, then as mid level trough pushes in from the East by the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame, which will bring deeper moisture
and increase rainfall chances into the 60-80% range for NE FL and
into the 40-60% range for SE GA as the East Coast sea breeze
become more active as it moves onshore each day, along with more
convection over the Atlantic Coastal Waters pushing onshore into
coastal areas through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Morning showers and possibly a few storms will move in off the
coastal waters this morning, affecting coastal TAF sites this
morning. This activity will move further inland in the afternoon
affecting KGNV. While prevailing conditions are expected to be VFR,
a brief period of restrictions is possible with passing
precipitation.

This activity is expected to diminish this evening, with prevailing
VFR conditions for the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The area will be between a frontal boundary to the south and weak
high pressure to the north northwest Today. An area of low pressure
will track to the northeast along the frontal zone this afternoon
through Saturday. Stronger high pressure will build to the north
northeast Saturday night through Sunday ushering in a prolonged
period of onshore flow, as this high will remain to the northeast
through the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Saturday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  71  99  72 /   0  10  20  10
SSI  88  75  90  78 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  91  72  96  74 /  20  10  20  10
SGJ  89  74  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  94  71  98  72 /  20  10  40  10
OCF  95  72  96  72 /  20  10  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$