Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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111 FXUS62 KJAX 200034 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 834 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The forecast is on track with very isolated weak convection now over inland northeast FL with MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and activity mainly developing from boundary interactions. Any convection expected to dissipate over the next hour or so. Have kept the mention of patchy fog for late tonight, with possibility of areas of fog from about Douglas to Jesup GA northward. Could be some locally dense fog in that area by 5-7 AM Friday. Otherwise, just some slight adjustments to the min temps tonight and trimming the POPs back a bit for the update. On the marine forecast, will have a slight bump up in the northeast winds for Friday but overall little change expected. A few showers will be possible well offshore tonight as a trough/weak front moves southward. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front will sink to the south Tonight, with high pressure building from the north. A few afternoon/evening showers and storms possible, mainly north central FL and I75 corridor through this evening, then a mainly dry night is forecast. Patchy fog will be possible again Tonight. Lows ranging from the upper 60s for interior SE GA to the mid 70s along the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure will build from the north northeast this period. A weak inverted trough will develop over the coastal waters. This pattern will yield an onshore flow. A few showers and storms will be possible each day due to diurnal instability and convergence associated with inverted trough. This activity will dissipate during the evening hours each day, with dry nights forecast. Near normal temperatures are expected during the day time hours. A wide range in temperatures is forecast during the nights due to the onshore flow. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to the mid 70s coast each night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure will be centered to the north northeast through Wednesday, continuing the onshore flow pattern. This ridge is expected to lift away to the north northeast Thursday, as a trough of low pressure digs along the east coast of the US. Much of this period will be dry, but precipitation chances will increase mid week due to the trough. Daytime temperatures will be around seasonal averages. Due to the onshore flow, temperatures will vary across area at night. Lows inland this period will generally be in the mid to upper 60s, with lower to mid 70s at the coast. The tropics are expected to become more active next week, with a tropical system possibly forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico and drifting northward. Use this weekend to restock supply kits, review family evacuation plans and considering some shelter maintenance like trimming trees. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR is prevailing at this hour, as most daytime convection continues to be very isolated. Cannot rule out brief SHRA impacts for most sites through about 02Z, especially SSI, VQQ and GNV. Patchy to areas of fog/low stratus are expected to develop overnight and towards morning, with the highest impacts expected at VQQ and GNV where IFR is forecast. Have included both SSI and CRG at borderline MVFR/IFR conditions in this forecast package, as restrictions will be possible at these areas as well overnight, though confidence is not very high. Convection is expected to be very isolated once again Friday, and therefore not included at any terminal at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Cold front will move south of the area through Tonight. High pressure will build to the north northeast Friday, and remain through the early part of next week. Rip Currents: Moderate through Friday && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Coastal flood advisory ongoing for St Johns due to high levels from recent rains, along with tides and onshore flow. With the onshore flow strengthening on Friday, this potential will increase and extend down the NE FL coast as well. The Coastal Flood Advisory includes both the NE FL coast, and St Johns river basin for Friday into Friday night. The flooding potential will be greatest around times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 87 67 87 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 72 83 73 83 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 70 86 71 86 / 10 10 10 10 SGJ 72 86 74 86 / 10 10 10 20 GNV 70 88 70 88 / 20 20 10 10 OCF 71 90 71 90 / 20 30 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ033-038- 125-132-137-225-325. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-133-138. GA...None. AM...None. && $$