773
FXUS62 KJAX 210017
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
817 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 817 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions should prevail early this evening, followed by
clouds lowering to MVFR after 02Z at SGJ, CRG, and JAX as showers
begin to move onshore from the Atlantic waters. MVFR ceilings of
2,000-3,000 feet will overspread the VQQ and SSI terminals after
06Z, with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing overnight at GNV.
Lower MVFR ceilings and chances for thunderstorms will increase
after 08Z at SGJ, where periods of IFR visibilities will be
possible after 10Z during heavier downpours. This activity will
spread across the Duval County terminals and SSI during the
morning hours on Friday, and ceilings further inland will also
lower to MVFR at GNV after 12Z. Bands of heavier downpours and
embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact the regional
terminals through around 20Z, with confidence in coverage and
intensity then falling during the late afternoon hours. Prevailing
vicinity thunderstorm coverage was placed in each TAF during the
late afternoon hours on Friday. Breezy northeasterly winds
sustained around 15 knots will prevail at the SGJ and SSI coastal
terminals overnight, while winds elsewhere subside to 5-10 knots
after 03Z. Outside of gustier thunderstorm activity, northeasterly
winds will remain sustained around 15 knots at the coastal
terminals through late Friday afternoon, while speeds elsewhere
increase to 10-15 knots after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Area of low pressure with disorganized convection will move west-
northwest toward SE GA and NE FL during the overnight hours and
then move inland around or just after sunrise Friday morning.
There is no much time for the system to get organized, but there
is a small chance it can be a depression before it comes ashore.
Either way, impacts are the same with rough surf, potential minor
beach erosion during high tide, high risk of rip currents. Expecting
numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms with this feature,
along with elevated winds and gusts particularly I-95 eastward
where some wind gusts exceeding 30 mph are possible. Highs Friday
will be a little cooler than normal due the clouds and rainfall
passing through with highs in the 85 to 90 degree range.

High pressure will build to the northeast behind the low pressure
area Friday night through Saturday. This pattern will continue
the onshore flow pattern, but the gradient will be more relaxed,
so so not expecting winds to be as elevated during this time frame.
Above average shower chances will continue in the onshore flow.
Diurnal heating could lead to a few afternoon storms on Saturday.
Lows Friday night will generally be in the lower to mid 70s,
except a little warmer near the coast. Temperatures Saturday will
trend above normal, with highs ranging from the lower 90s at the
coast, to the mid 90s inland.

The high will move further away to the east northeast Saturday
night, with the flow becoming more from the south/southeast. Lows
away from the coast in the mid 70s, upper 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The high will continue to drift away to the east this period, as a
trough moves into the southeastern US and stalls. An increasingly
moist southwest flow will become the trend this period. This pattern
will produce above normal chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be above normal throughout this period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Strong high pressure will sink southward over the western Atlantic
waters east of the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight with small
craft advisory conditions continuing over the local waters. Weak
troughing over the area waters will help to bring occasional light
showers across the waters through early this evening. Tonight, a
weak low currently northeast of the Bahamas will move westward as
the high to the northeast shifts more eastward into the western
Atlantic. The weak low will move onshore early Friday morning and
then exit to the west through the day towards the northeast Gulf
of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the high to the northeast
and the low moving through the region will continue small craft
advisory conditions through much of Friday before the pressure
gradient relaxes due to the low departing and the high weakening.
Seabreeze circulations will create increasing coverage of showers
and thunderstorms along the coast and local waters this weekend
as light southeast flow prevails. A cold front will approach early
next week with winds becoming more southerly and elevated chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents in effect for northeast FL
and southeast GA beaches due to strong onshore flow through Friday.
High surf advisory also in effect for northeast florida beaches
as surf/breakers remain 5-7 ft and range 4-6 ft along the
southeast GA beaches. With the approach of the full moon later
this week, water levels will start to run above normal but coastal
flooding is not expected at this time in the onshore flow.|

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A wave of low pressure will move west and affect the area late
tonight through Friday morning with numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms for much of the area. High pressure will build
further away to the east northeast Friday night through Saturday.
The high will drift further away to the east later in the weekend
into next week, as a trough of low pressure slides into the
southeastern US and stalls. This will allow a moist southwesterly
to persists next week allowing scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk of excessive
rainfall for tonight where locally heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches are possible across coastal NE FL as a weak low moves
from north of the Bahamas west northwest into the southern portion
of the the NE FL coast near or south of St Augustine with rounds
of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms moving onshore from
the Atlantic waters. Urban locations within the I-95 corridor may
experience minor flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  90  73  92 /  40  60  30  80
SSI  77  87  77  88 /  60  80  60  70
JAX  75  88  74  92 /  70  80  50  80
SGJ  77  87  75  90 /  80  80  60  80
GNV  73  89  72  93 /  60  80  30  90
OCF  74  91  75  95 /  50  70  30  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$