580
FXUS62 KJAX 160138
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
938 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Overall forecast is on track this evening as thunderstorms are
quickly waning west of I-75 towards the Gulf coast. After
leftover anvil debris clouds clear over NE FL, skies will be
mostly clear with patchy fog possible along the US17 corridor
towards US301 and along the Altamaha river basin. Light east
southeast winds at the coast will turn calm inland after midnight.
Lows will fall to the lower 70s over the interior with mid and
upper 70s closer to the coast.

High pressure will build to the northeast on Sunday with the local
pressure gradient beginning to tighten some, leading to elevated
onshore easterly winds 10-20 mph behind a quick moving Atlantic
seabreeze. Expect convection to develop again over the southern St
Johns river basin into north central FL as the Atlantic seabreeze
pushes far inland with stronger T`storm potential near I-75 as
it encounters and merges with the Gulf coast seabreeze with some
wind gusts up to 40-50 mph and brief heavy downpours as the main
impacts. Highs will be a little less hot with low to mid 90s
inland and upper 80s to near 90 along the beaches and coastal
communities. Storms should fade west of I-75 an hour after sunset.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

East coast sea breeze has pushed through the First Coast counties
of NE FL producing a few showers near the western Flagler and
eastern Putnam county border this early afternoon. The east coast
sea breeze will continue to push westward toward I-75 meeting up
with the Gulf seabreeze where showers will be scattered to
numerous the later part of the afternoon. Surface high pressure
over the OH/TN River Valley this afternoon will transition to just
offshore of New England on Sunday. This will allow a continued
easterly flow across the region, with slightly higher winds on
Sunday, with breezy conditions on the beaches. Very similar
scenario as today where most favorable area for convection will
near the I-75 corridor where the east coast sea breeze is
anticipated to meet up with the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze for best
moisture convergence. A mainly clear night is forecast for
tonight. High res models do show some patchy fog near the Altamaha
River Basin during the pre-dawn hours. Above normal temperatures
are forecast this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, with mid 90s
common inland. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the
area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly winds will begin to build on Sunday as high pressure
builds near the Carolina`s, and with a dissipating front over
Georgia/South Carolina, enough moisture will be in place for an
increase in precipitation potential. The east coast sea breeze
will be able to make it`s way westward, with the I-75 corridor
being highlighted for numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Highs will reach the upper 80s
along the coast, and 90s inland.

Similar high temperatures forecast for Monday, with scattered
shower and thunderstorm potential continuing as onshore winds of
15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 10-20 mph over inland areas
persist. Mild low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights,
staying in the 70s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Each day during this period will have a very similar forecast.
High pressure to the northeast will promote elevated onshore flow,
keeping high temperatures along the coast in the mid to upper 80s,
with inland highs reaching the lower 90s, close to near normal
temperatures. Showers over the Atlantic will move onshore, with a
slight uptick in coverage each day, and the east coast sea breeze
will be able to push inland in the afternoons. Scattered to
numerous showers expected each day, with highest thunderstorm
chances in the afternoon/evenings over NE FL with sea breeze
interactions and ample diurnal heating.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mostly VFR conditions throughout the 00Z TAF period into Sunday.
Thunderstorms will wane near GNV by 01Z with the loss of heating
and some drier air aloft with few to scattered low level clouds
and some leftover anvil clouds through 04Z-05Z. Winds will remain
east southeasterly along the coast 5-8 knots tonight and turning
calm inland after 05Z with some patchy fog that may bring MVFR
level visibility restrictions at GNV and VQQ until 11Z-12Z. High
pressure to the north overnight will build more to the northeast
on Sunday and light easterly winds 5-8 knots after sunrise will
become breezy with VCTS at GNV and VQQ after 17Z-18Z as Atlantic
seabreeze moves inland with VCSH posted at CRG, JAX, and SGJ.
Drier conditions will resume at the duval and coastal sites after
21Z with still breezy easterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High pressure will build to the north through Tonight, then shift
to the northeast Sunday. High pressure will remain centered to
the northeast through the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged
period of onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
possible around the middle of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend for NE FL and SE
GA beaches, potential for high risk early this week as onshore
winds build.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly flow will prevail through the weekend and much of next
week with high pressure to our north transitioning to well
northeast of the region. This weekend the best chances of
convection will occur along the I-75 corridor where scattered to
numerous showers are anticipated. High dispersions will reside
near the Altamaha River, interior southeast Georgia and northern
Suwannee Valley Sunday afternoon. Min RH values across interior
SE GA Sunday afternoon will be in the 35 to 40 percent range
during peak heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  95  72  93 /   0  10   0  20
SSI  77  88  78  87 /   0  10  10  40
JAX  74  91  74  89 /   0  20  10  40
SGJ  74  89  77  88 /  10  20  20  50
GNV  73  92  71  92 /  30  50  10  40
OCF  73  92  72  92 /  40  60  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$