787
FXUS63 KJKL 222025
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The upper level ridge responsible for our current heat wave will
  move away from the region through Monday, allowing more
  unsettled weather to take hold across the state.

- An approaching cold front brings some much needed rain to
  eastern Kentucky Sunday afternoon and night. A few storms may
  approach severe limits on Sunday with damaging winds the primary
  threat.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected from late
  Tuesday through Thursday, with the threat peaking during the
  day Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 425 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2024

19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the southeast of Kentucky
supporting relatively light winds and a continuation of the hot
and humid weather - likely currently peaking. The high has not
completely suppressed the convection over the area with a decent
cu field in place along with a few small showers developing that
have a potential for thunder. These will stick around the area
for the next few hours, amid a touch of haze. Temperatures are
peaking in the low 90s most places with dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s - yielding heat indices in the mid to upper 90s for
the majority while a few spots hitting 100 degrees.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continuing to be
in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict strong ridging to the south of the
area retreating a bit to the southwest in the face of more energy
and troughiness moving through the Ohio Valley tonight through
Monday morning. The lead impulse associated with this passes by to
the northeast early Sunday with another going by during the
afternoon. As a result, 5h height falls work in from the north
tonight into Sunday with the best push arriving that night as a
more distinct shortwave crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The
model spread through the short term remains small so the NBM was
used as the starting point for the grids through Monday morning
with little deviation aside from the incorporation of some terrain
distinctions for temperatures tonight. Did also enhance the PoPs
on Sunday and Sunday night per the latest CAMs ideas.

Sensible weather features the heat wave holding on for one more
day before a passing cold front brings a chance for showers and
storms along with a slightly cooler and drier air mass. Until
that boundary arrives, we will have another very warm and muggy
night along with limited amounts of river valley fog. The front
then helps to kick off showers and thunderstorms through the area
later in the day, Sunday. CAMs suggest that peak heating will
contribute to storm development later in the afternoon into the
evening with a better wind field aloft allowing decent venting and
a potential for organization. In addition, the storm scale
dynamics of mergers could also contribute to strong storms with
damaging wind gusts as the main threat. The boundary continues to
settle through the area that night with a small potential for a
shower or storm into the night. Expect temperatures to not be
quite as warm Sunday night compared to tonight - as well as more
uniform.

The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of tweaking
the temperatures in order to better reflect some limited terrain
details tonight. PoPs were adjusted on Sunday and Sunday night per
the latest guidance from the CAMS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2024

In the extended, we will see periods of both hot and dry weather and
unsettled weather. Based on the latest model data, isolated showers
and storms will be moving out of the area Monday, as a ridge of high
pressure pushes a trough aloft to the east of the area. The rain
will linger in our eastern counties in vicinity of the higher
terrain there, and should be out of the area by early evening. After
that, the ridge will keep the weather dry Monday night into early
Tuesday evening. Another trough aloft and surface cold front will
move through the area late Tuesday night through Wednesday. The
front will slow down and get hung up over the area late Wednesday
night and Thursday. Showers and storms will linger on Thursday, but
should exit again by early evening. Another ridge of high pressure
will then move in Thursday night through Friday night, with
extremely hot temperatures again on tap. Another trough of low
pressure may move in next Saturday, bringing another chance for rain
to eastern Kentucky. Temperatures will be quite warm on average
through out the extended, with the coolest readings expected Monday
and Thursday, when the two troughs move through. The warmest days
will see highs in the mid to upper 90s, with the cooler days only
reaching the mid to upper 80s. The primary weather concern in the
extended will be the hot and muggy conditions expected Tuesday,
Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2024

Under a rather extensive cumulus field across the area, on
account of strong diurnal heating, a few showers or thunderstorms
with sub-VFR conditions will dot the area into the start of the
evening, mostly in far southeast Kentucky. However, the
probability of impacts at any of the TAF sites remains too low to
include at this issuance. Again some river valley fog is then
expected to develop tonight in the deeper spots - away from the
TAF terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions hold through the period,
with light and variable winds. A stray shower or thunderstorm
will be possible late in the period for the northwest TAF sites
Sunday afternoon as a cold front settles briefly into the area -
but this was left out of the prevailing forecast, for now.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF