017
FXUS63 KJKL 161112
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
712 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and somewhat humid weather arrives today and persists
  through the upcoming week. Afternoon heat indices may peak
  around 100 at some locations.

- There is a potential for thunderstorms today, primarily near and
  south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Hwy-80 corridor. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide on Monday. The
  greatest probability is in the afternoon and evening hours each
  day.

- Our next chance for rain or thunderstorms won`t be until
  Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024

Fog has proven to be quite limited this morning given more
extensive high-level cloudiness as well as a very dry air mass in
place over eastern Kentucky. Thus, took out fog mention in the
gridded and text forecasts for this morning. Otherwise, hourly
observations were blended into the forecast for continuity
purposes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024

It`s heating up today! Take precautions.

A warm front will be lifting north through the state today,
increasing the southerly flow across the region. This will result in
WAA and also an uptick in moisture. Clouds will be on the increase
as a result during the afternoon. Can`t rule out a few
showers/thunderstorms developing during the afternoon as a result of
this boundary moving through. All models show best convection
chances to our south, across TN, and expanding into our southern
CWA. The northern JKL counties look to remain dry. High temperatures
today will be in the low to mid 90s, but with humidity added in, it
will feel more like the upper 90s. Heat indices may near 100 degrees
in a few places.

As we head into the overnight, the warm front will be north of the
state, and clouds will dissipate with loss of mixing. The light
southerly winds will make a good setup for decoupling in the
valleys, so expect some decent ridge/valley temperature difference.
That being said, we are still in a very warm airmass, so low temps
will only settle in the mid 60s to low 70s. For reference, this is
over 10 degrees warmer than this morning`s lows for many locations.

Then for Monday, high pressure will remain parked east of the state,
with return southerly flow ongoing. A large influx of warm moist air
is expected across the Mississippi Valley, on the west side of this
high pressure system and upper level ridge. By afternoon, the
increased moisture, heat, and instability will lead to scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the Mississippi
Valleys. Models also show this band of moisture rounding the ridge
into Kentucky and the Ohio Valley, with nearly every model showing
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by the
afternoon and early evening, before quickly dissipating as the sun
goes down. There is no forcing mechanism other than a warm/moist
airmass, so expect these showers/storms to quickly pop up and
dissipate. In other words, there isn`t much in the way of severe
potential with these storms, though can`t rule out a rogue
overachiever. Much like today, highs will top out in the low 90s,
but the humidity will make it feel closer to 100 degrees.

Take precautions today and through the rest of the week for in the
increased heat. Make sure you take frequent breaks and can cool off.
Also make sure your pets and livestock have plenty of water and a
cool place to shelter out of the sun.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024

Models continue in agreement for the pattern that will affect our
area during the long term period. Strong upper level high pressure
will start out centered over NC. It is expected to shift north to
near NYC at mid week, with a ridge axis extending southwest over the
central Appalachians. It then shifts back south to the vicinity of
the SC/GA coastal area and slightly weakens by the weekend. There is
some degree of uncertainty by that time with regards to timing an
upper trough and associated cold front crossing through the middle
of the country.

In the lower levels, moisture will have advected back north over our
area Monday and will continue into Monday night and Tuesday, with
dew points primarily in the lower 70s. Convective activity will
diminish Monday evening with loss of heating, with widespread patchy
to areas of fog developing in many low spots even despite some cloud
cover.

The upper level ridge axis will be building into our area by Tuesday
and should bring enough subsidence with a mid level cap developing
to help inhibit thunderstorm development. As we move further into
the week, our low level flow will emanate out of high pressure to
our east. Without sufficient time for the air mass to modify, and
along with deep mixing, this should bring dew points down slightly
into the 60s, further reducing our potential for thunderstorms. It
looks like this scenario lasts through Friday.

The potential for thunderstorms could make a comeback by Saturday.
The GFS QPF shows spotty light amounts on that day, indicative of
sparse convective precip. The ECMWF remains dry. With the upper
level ridge shown to be weakening, from a synoptic viewpoint it
would make sense for at least a small possibility of thunderstorms
to return, and a 20% POP will be used.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected through the period under
primarily high clouds. Did include VCTS at KLOZ and KSME between
21z and 23z as a warm front moves north across the region, with
any potential convective activity likely having fairly high cloud
bases. However, this is likely extremely cautionary VCTS mention
as moisture is quite limited, and any shower or thunderstorm
development should be extremely limited/isolated in nature. With
better moisture moving in to the region later tonight, fog will
be a bit more likely than this morning at the low-lying TAF sites
such as KLOZ and KSME. Have opted to leave out any mention at this
time given the uncertainties.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...CMC/HAL
AVIATION...CMC