Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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609 FXUS63 KJKL 180810 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 410 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional shower (and possible thunderstorm) chances will occur through Thursday. - A warming trend will lead to temperatures around 10 degrees above normal over the upcoming weekend. - Active weather returns for the 1st half of next week, with showers and thunderstorms possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024 Forecast is on track, and meaningful precip looks to be done for the night. Have blended late evening obs into the forecast without any substantive changes. UPDATE Issued at 909 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2024 Precip has been on an overall decline this evening. The most significant showers remaining are in our southwest counties. Have updated the POP for this evening based on these trends, with mainly a sub-20% POP to follow for the overnight, as models and radar would suggest. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 507 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2024 Upper level low and associated surface wave will spin its way up the northern half of the Piedmont during the short term, opening up into a trough as it tracks towards New England. Short wave energy rotating around the low will keep the threat of some type of afternoon convection in place across portions eastern Kentucky through the period. There is a band of showers, and further upstream, thunderstorms lining up along the NC/VA state line that is moving downstream into eastern Kentucky. SPC mesoanalysis shows a lobe of MLCAPE nosing its way as far northwest as Wise, VA. But otherwise, the better instability remains outside of our forecast area. This line takes on an increased east to west orientation with time. Consequently, this source of moisture into eastern Kentucky will eventually get shunted off to the south of our area by this evening. Sensible weather features an unsettled short term, with the bonus of the chance of receiving some much needed rain, even if relatively meager in amounts. Being at an upslope location, Big Black Mountain has come out on top with almost 1.5 inches of rainfall today. Totals drop off quickly from there with around a half inch directly down from Black Mountain, across the immediate tier of counties from the VA state line. From there, the next tier of counties going west- northwest had just under a quarter of an inch of rainfall, with lesser amounts further to the west- northwest, around a tenth or less of precipitation. Up to another tenth of an inch on average will be possible through the short term...where showers pass. Have not seen any thunder thus far and expect that to remain the case in general through the remainder of the late afternoon and evening. However, with MLCAPES of 750-1000 J/kg, there is slightly better instability to work with on Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 313 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024 Model guidance shows a 592mb subtropical high centered over Texas, supporting a positively tilted ridge upstream. Concurrently, a longwave positively tilted trough looks to encompass much of the eastern seaboard. As far as sensible weather for eastern Kentucky, any lingering showers should be tapering off heading into the evening, with fog developing overnight heading into Friday. Lows should generally be in the 50s. Friday through Sunday, expect the eastern trough to progress further north and east and for the subtropical ridge to slightly strengthen. With increasing heights aloft, daytime high temperatures are expected to run 5-10 degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 80s. Expect mostly sunny skies for Friday, with some clouds showing up Saturday and Sunday. Lows will generally remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Next week, active weather returns to eastern Kentucky, with model guidance showing an upper level low ejecting out of the intermountain west into the Plains, while the subtropical high over Texas begins to shift eastward. Some showers and thunderstorms look to spill over the ridge into the area during the afternoon Monday, with on and off storms continuing through Wednesday. Highs Monday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 70s to low 80s with the added cloud cover limiting daytime heating. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024 A combination of conditions exist across the area with this TAF issuance. Southern terminals (KJKL, KSJS, KLOZ and KSME) are expected to fall into categorical IFR to MVFR overnight. Terminal KSYM is expected to fluctuate between MVFR/VFR overnight. Fog/low- level stratus will continue through the early morning before improving to MVFR/VFR by the early afternoon. As this system, that`s brought the lowered CIGS and showers, continues to impact the area; a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon after 18Z through 22Z before dissipating. Showers and storms may cause brief reductions in VSBY. Toward the end of the period, CIGS are expected to fall again into categorical MVFR overnight Wednesday. Light and variable winds are forecast to persist through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...VORST