Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
627 FXUS63 KJKL 141435 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-30%) for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon through this evening, primarily northeast of KY-15. - Hot and uncomfortable weather builds through this weekend, with highs in low to mid 90s and heat indices peaking out around 100 degrees in some locations each afternoon from Sunday through Wednesday. - Disorganized afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Monday onward. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024 Another very warm mid-June day is unfolding across the region under partly to mostly sunny skies. A subtle disturbance could spark a sprinkle or shower this afternoon, primarily northeast of KY-15. A cold front will then settle in from the north later this evening, perhaps sparking a few more isolated showers, again generally northeast of KY-15. One or two of the most robust updrafts might mature into a thunderstorm, in which case, plenty of dry air leading to DCAPE values greater than 1,000 J/kg would support the risk for strong thunderstorm wind gusts. UPDATE Issued at 707 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024 An area of sprinkles and light rain continue to move southeast across the northern half of the forecast area this morning. This is leftovers from last night`s thunderstorm activity in the Midwest. So far the highest precipitation amounts are only 0.01" in our CWA, so just enough to get the ground wet in a few locations. Have thus adjusted PoPs and Sky grids to account for this activity through the mid-morning hours. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024 The latest surface analysis has a surface low moving across the Great Lakes with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Central Plains. Ahead of the front, a line of showers and thunderstorms are diving southeast toward the Commonwealth. Current radar trends have the showers and storms drifting along an outflow boundary but radar trends have the showers weakening with a couple of pulse showers that are short-lived. Those showers will continue to push southeast through the remainder of the overnight and a stray shower may be possible in the Bluegrass early tomorrow morning. As the aforementioned cold front dives southeast toward the Commonwealth, renewed chances of showers and storms will exist along and ahead of the front. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty outflow winds as a deep column of dry air exists across the area. The front is expected to exit to the east late Friday evening with shower and thunderstorm activity will decreasing in coverage. Along with thunderstorm chances existing across the area, high temperatures are forecast to push into the upper-80s to low-90s across the region. Surface high pressure will begin to nudge itself into the area overnight Friday before becoming firmly entrenched for Saturday. High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be similar to Friday. Fortunately, dry air will continue to be in place and heat indices will remain on the more bearable side. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024 The long term period begins Saturday night with an upper high rapidly strengthening over the Southern Appalachians through early Monday, then moving to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US through mid- week before moving into the western Atlantic Ocean toward the end of the week. Meanwhile, the jet stream remains well north of eastern Kentucky through the period, keeping active weather far removed from the area. Much of the period will be hot and dry, with the best chances for isolated disorganized showers and storms coming each of Monday through Thursday afternoons when the area resides more under the periphery of the unusually strong upper ridge over the Northeast US. The heat will be the big story, with highs well into the 90s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s from Sunday onward. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees each day from Sunday onward as well, with Monday and Tuesday most likely to be the hottest days with a few indices exceeding 100 degrees but likely remaining below Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least the vast majority of the TAF period as high pressure will largely exist across the region. However, a passing disturbance could bring a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Confidence in precipitation chances and coverage are very low; therefore, opted to keep any mention in the TAFs as VCTS with isolated showers and storms possible through 00Z/Saturday. Light and variable winds will persist through the TAF period but gusty outflows could exist where thunderstorm activity is present. MVFR or worse conditions are possible in fog after 06z/Saturday especially where rain occurs this afternoon, but this is low confidence at this time. Opted to follow statistical guidance with regards to mentioning any fog at any TAF site with the 12z TAF package. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...CMC