903
FXUS63 KJKL 220847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
447 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist through
  much of the next week.

- After high temperatures well into the 80s to near 90 today,
  readings will trend downward during the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 446 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Early this morning a diffuse frontal boundary is stretched NW/SE
through eastern KY. Somewhat drier air tried to make its way in on
the northeast side of the front. However, abundant surface
moisture lingered below drier air aloft and has resulted in
extensive fog in valleys. The fog will dissipate after sunrise.

Aloft, high pressure over TX is ridging northeast over the Great
Lakes, with troughs on both sides and a weak upper low over CO.
The trough impinging on the ridge from the west will work to
flatten the ridging today and tonight and allow systems to become
more progressive. The front currently over our area will lift
northeast as a warm front, leaving all of our area firmly in a
warm and humid air mass (dew points near 70) by Monday afternoon.
Warmer and more humid air returning, along with the ridge aloft
breaking down, may allow for a few showers/thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon.

There may a be a little bit better chance at showers/storms
tonight as another cold front approaches from the northwest. This
front is expected to stall over KY on Monday and aid in further
thunderstorm development then, especially after some heating
occurs. Meanwhile, the CO upper low will be moving to the ENE over
the Midwest and providing a modest increase in our flow aloft.
With modest shear expected to result, SPC has placed roughly the
southwest half of our forecast area in a marginal outlook.
However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding
timing/placement of convection and the degree of destabilization
that will be possible due to increased clouds and possible precip.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2024

An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Fog was prevalent in most of the larger stream valleys at the
start of the period. It will continue to expand in coverage
through sunrise, and is expected to bring IFR or worse conditions
to all TAF sites, at least at times. The fog will dissipate during
the few hours after sunrise, leaving mainly VFR conditions to last
into Sunday night. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop
on Sunday afternoon and last into the evening before dissipating.
They will bring localized sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL