Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
352 FXUS62 KKEY 250206 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1006 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1006 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A ridge axis extending from the western North Atlantic has begun to sag southward across the Florida Peninsula this evening. Winds have dropped a few knots and marine observation platforms are seeing variable wind directions across the nearshore waters. With this light and variable flow across the region, mesoscale processes dominated this afternoon and evening. The main source of rainfall for the island chain came from various cloud lines. Some portions of the Upper Keys received almost 2" of rainfall within a short period of time due to the slow movement of these showers that developed along a cloud line, while up to 1" of rainfall in portions of the Lower Keys from another cloud line. With the loss of daytime heating, activity has subsided this evening. That does not mean that boundaries are not still out there lurking... They have just not been re-ignited. These mesoscale boundaries will be one of the main ways the Keys will see any rainfall overnight. Due to the lack of any good triggering mechanisms, have decided to drop PoPs to low end chance, which still may be too high. The deep tropical moisture (00Z sounding measured 2.37", which actually breaks the daily max for today), combined with ample CAPE and minimal inhibition is what is causing us to hold off on dropping PoPs any further. Have also decided to lower thunder chances, due to the minimal deep convection that was seen over the past few hours. Otherwise, no changes were made to the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1006 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a western North Atlantic ridge will settle southward into the Florida Straits starting tonight through Thursday, with light southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters. Breezes may become variable at times during this period. The ridge will shift back northward late this week, allowing light to gentle southeast breezes to resume. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period. There may be a few boundaries within the forecast area currently, however, the timing of the re-ignition along these boundaries is uncertain as of now, so have kept VCSH out of both TAFs. Surface winds will generally be light and variable overnight, then will become southwesterly tomorrow. This southwesterly wind direction may be able to spur on a reverse cloud line during the day tomorrow. Mention of showers once confidence increases will likely need to be included in later updates. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1976, both the daily record cold high temperature of 81F and the daily record rainfall of 2.65" were both recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872 and rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 89 81 90 / 30 30 30 40 Marathon 80 90 81 91 / 40 40 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest