138
FXUS62 KKEY 271433
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1033 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1016 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights lower heights across the Gulf of
Mexico and Florida, while the CIMMS low-level mean layer analysis
depicts a broad ridge axis extending west across the Bahamas and
Cuba. SFC winds at the Reef are from the south and 5 knots or
less. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled 1.86" of PW, lower than yesterday
at this time. A shallow layer of BL inhibition gives way to
moderate ML instability. There is evidence in the satellite
imagery of SFC southeasterlies nearing the island chain. The KBYX
radar detects isolated showers near and west-southwest of the
Lower Keys along the weak southeasterly convergence. The
developing southeast to southerly steering flow does not bode
well for accumulating theta-e along the island chain, and the
advertised slight rain/thunder chances through the afternoon are
in line with the MOS consensus. No changes are needed with the
inherited forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1016 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
A weak ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic
over the Straits of Florida will cause light to gentle breezes
across Keys waters through tonight. Breezes may become variable
during this period. By Friday, the ridge will shift north towards
the Florida Peninsula and allow breezes to gradually back to
southeasterlies by Friday night and easterlies on Saturday. High
pressure rebuilding off the east coast over the weekend will build
gentle to moderate breezes across the Keys waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today and into
tonight. While a few showers have popped up on a boundary drifting
northwest through the Straits of Florida, they are staying west of
the island chain for now. Cloud line chances are dwindling as winds
look to already be shifting towards the southeast to south with
drier air progged to sweep in behind the previously mentioned
boundary. Near surface winds will be light and generally out of the
south early, becoming more southeast to south throughout the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1961, the daily record rainfall of 3.30" was recorded
in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  92  84  91 /  20  30  30  40
Marathon  81  91  83  89 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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